The Synchronization of Sectoral Cycles

  • Bernd Süssmuth
Part of the Contributions to Economics book series (CE)


Collective dynamics of (stochastic) systems, as observed in biological, chemical, economic, mechanical, statistical-physical, neurological or sociological systems, show a great variety of phenomena like pulsating patterns, frustration, synchronization or stochastic resonance, see, for example, Kuramoto and Nishikawa (1987), Selover and Jensen (1999), Sosnovtseva et al. (1999) and Néda et al. (2000a and 2000b). Recently, the natural sciences have shown a growing interest in the measurement and explanat ion of the synchronization of cyclically behaving entities, cf. the recent contribution to Nature by Neda et al. (2000b).


Late Period Business Cycle Stochastic Resonance Phase Synchronization Period Length 
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  1. 1.
    In general it should be noted that resonance, mode-locking or entrainment are the more general phenomena. A possible manifestation of them, depending on their quantitative strength, is the more specific phenomenon of synchronization, cf. Haxholdt et al. (1995), p. 178.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    For formal defintions of spectral measures the reader is referred to the methodolgical part of the thesis. For bivariate, i.e. cross-, spectral estimations in the context of US sectoral investment cycles, see the results reported in the preceding chapter.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Somehow similar, there is a recent research effort, based on dynamic factor analysis, to extract the common supranational (as opposed to a remaining idiosynchratic national) component from a variety of different national time series in the frequency domain, see Reichlin (2000). According to the definitions, outlined above, this strategy investigates the stronger phenomenon of (close to) complete synchronization.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    The Arab oil embargo in 1973 led to a jump in the global market’sprice per barrel from roughly US $1.50 to US $10. The Iran-Iraq tensions in the late 1970s caused world oil production to drop approximately 7.2%.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    As presented in part II of chapter 5 and the proceeding chapter of the present part of the monograph.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    According to the prior of a mean period length of the industrial investment series of about 4.5 years, as reported in the estimation results from the preceding chapter.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Taking absolute values ensures that phase leads and lags do not cancel out in the course of the computation of mean values.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    I am indebted to Stephan Klasen for his encouragement to consider this approach once more and to develop the described method. I wouldn’t have pursued it further without his suggestion to do so during an oral presentation of my preliminary results at the Forschungsseminar (research seminar) of the Department of Economics, University of Munich.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    The relationship of signal extraction via spline smoothing to the Kalman-filtering procedure is established and discussed by Wecker and Ansley (1983).Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Another approach to take account of temporally varying coefficients in the context of sectoral business cycles is followed by Fioretti and Süssmuth (2001), who apply a neural network of the Kohonen type.Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    A historiographical outline of the US economy from the 1961 expansion over the Korean War boom, followed by the decline during the Vietnam War years and the proceeding boom is given for example by Perlo (1974).Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    It is noteworthy that these recent contributions on the self-organization, physics and dynamics of the rythmic applause share with the present study the problem of “short sampling time,” i.e. relatively short time series, cf. Néda et al. (2000a), p. 6989.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Preventing independent sectoral shocks, as reported in Long and Plosser (1987) and Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), from cancelling out according to the law of large numbers or similar laws, see Horvath (1998a and 1998b).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bernd Süssmuth
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Economics (Economic Policy)University of BambergBambergGermany

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