Mode-Locking and the Global Cycle
Recent empirical evidence suggests that national business cycles got and get synchronized over time. For example Duecker and Wesche (1999) note: “National business-cycle indices from France, Germany, Italy ar e consistent with the claim that the European economies are becoming more harmonized over time,’ p. II. Similar results are documented by Artis and Zhang (1999), Imbs (1999) and Selover and Jensen (1999). On the other hand novel evidence on the determinants of the synchronization of business cycles by Imbs (1999) suggests that trade, as well as geographic considerations have no systematic or surprisingly small quantitative effects on the synchronization of business cycles. Although openness to trade is by far the most frequently cited culprit for this apparent ‘globalization’ of cycles,1 Imbs (1999) notes: “Within the academic profession, however, few economists would agree that this is the sole - or even most important - mechanism. There are two reasons to this restraint. First openness as measured for instance by the share of exports to GDP rarely reaches levels compatible with promoting trade as the sole responsible for co-fluct uations … Second, economic theory offers no definite answer to the question of what drives the international business cycles,’ p. 2.
KeywordsBusiness Cycle Parametric Resonance Global Cycle Business Cycle Synchronization Inventory Stock
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- 1.An example of the public opinion, is given by Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, in Wall Street Journal Europe (article: Global Economic Contagion Spreading Gloom, July 6-7, 2001), cf. the citation at the beginning of the present part of the thesis: In his opinion the actual global economic contagion is primarily transmitted through the channels of 1) cross-border trade (‘trade fluctuations spill over’), 2) global supply chains, and 3) multinational corporations.Google Scholar
- 2.See for example the numerous publications of the research group around John Sterman and Erik Mosekilde: Larsen et al. (1992), Mosekilde et al. (1992), Mosekilde et al. (1993), Kampmann et al. (1994), Sterman and Mosekilde (1994) and Haxholdt et al. (1995), as well as the ones of Brenner, Weidlich and Witt (1998) and Focardi and Marchesi (2000). A more distinct analysis of these concepts of cycles’ synchronization and recent developments and insights, especially from statistical physics, are given in the last two chapters of part III of the dissertation.Google Scholar
- 3.As are the interaction model of long-wave, Kuznets-swings and business cycles of the Sterman/Mosekilde-team, the models by Hillinger/Weser, and the recent models by Brenner, Weidlich, Witt (1998) and Focardi and Marchesi (1998).Google Scholar
- 4.This selection of economies corresponds to the one chosen in the ‘empirical evidence’-section of Selover and Jensen (1999).Google Scholar
- 5.For a detailed mathematical intuition of parametric resonance, formal derivations of the conditions for its occurence, as well as novel insights and recent findings from modern (statistical) physics, see Hillinger and Weser (1988b), Weser (1992). and Siissmuth (2002a).Google Scholar
- 7.Furthermore, he finds that trade has surprisingly small quantitative effects and geographic considerations do not matter systematically.Google Scholar
- 8.Production activities additional to the non-interactive behaviour required by national economy specific medium-term production smoothing (see equation (5.21) above) is meant.Google Scholar
- 9.For an empirical underpinning and evidence for endogenously-timed herding phenomena, the reader is referred to the documentation and interpretation of a herding experiment in endogenous time, recently conducted at Nuffield College, University of Oxford, by Sgroi (2000).Google Scholar
- 10.Most evidently, this is a quite more realistic and economically meaningful implication in contrast to the sinusoidal waveform-shaped business cycle ‘dummies’ of the Selover/Jensen model. Cf. also the fact that moduli implied by AR spectral estimations of real world economic time series generally take on values < 1. For an interpretation of the relationship between damping rates and moduli, see the immediately following paragraph.Google Scholar
- 11.We will assume for simplicity that the desired inventory capital K*j will be a share of global demand Z.Google Scholar