Scenario and Policy Analysis

  • Lars Weber
Part of the Contributions to Economics book series (CE)


In this chapter the author’s semi-endogenous growth model is applied to various demographic problems. The presented scenarios are conceptual. Thus, general results and explanations for the case of aging and shrinking of economies are presented. In later empirical work one can estimate all exogenous variables for a full parameter adoption. Then the model delivers results – based on the neoclassical growth theory – on how a country will develop over time.


Total Fertility Rate Dependency Ratio Growth Sector Family Orientation Real Investment 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. Forrester, J. W. (1968). Principles of systems. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.Google Scholar
  2. Rürup, B. (2000). Bevölkerungsalterung und Wirtschaftswachstum: Hypothesen und empirische Befunde. In H. Birg (Ed.), Prosperität in einer alternden Gesellschaft (pp. 83–106). Bad Homburg: Frankfurter Inst. - Stiftung Marktwirtschaft und Politik.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Physica-Verlag HD 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.FOM Hochschule für Oekonomie & Management gGmbHHochschulstudienzentrum LeipzigLeipzigGermany

Personalised recommendations