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The Demand for Maritime Transport: A Nonlinearity and Chaos Study

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Essays on Port Economics

Part of the book series: Contributions to Economics ((CE))

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Abstract

This paper studies the existence of non-linear dynamics and chaos in the Spanish maritime transport services for the period 1992–2007. Using monthly time series data and the Box-Jenkins approach for time series analysis as a preparatory step in order to obtain linear model and applying the BDS test to residuals obtained, we find that a number of sea traffic series – total cargo, solid bulk, liquid bulk, containered and non containered general cargo – do not show significant nonlinear dependence and hence chaos cannot be inferred.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    For example, see Scheinkman and LeBaron (1989), Frank and Stengos (1989), and Serletis and Gogas (1997).

  2. 2.

    For example, Coto-Millan (1995), Coto-Millan and Baños-Pino (1996), Li and Parsons (1997), Cullinane et al. (1999), Kavussanos and Nomikos (2000), Veenstra and Haralambides (2001), Mostafa (2004), Coto-Millan et al. (2004), Batchelor et al. (2007) and Castillo-Manzano et al. (2008).

  3. 3.

    See Box and Jenkins (1970) and Box et al. (1994).

  4. 4.

    See, for example Hillmer and Tiao (1982), Bell and Hillmer (1983 and 1984), Maravall and Pierce (1987), and Gómez and Maravall (1996, 1998, 2000a, b).

  5. 5.

    See, for example Box and Tiao (1975), Chang et al. (1988), Chen and Liu (1993), Gómez and Maravall (1994), and Gómez et al. (1999).

  6. 6.

    TRAMO, SEATS, and program TSW, a Windows version that integrates both programs, are available at http://www.bde.es, together with documentation.

  7. 7.

    See Brock and Sayers (1988) and Brock et al. (1993).

  8. 8.

    See Brock et al. (1996).

  9. 9.

    See EViews 6 User’s Guide.

  10. 10.

    This concept is used for example by Grassberger and Procaccia (1983).

  11. 11.

    We used EViews 6 for fitting of BDS test statistics.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. UNED, Madrid, Spain

    Lucía Inglada-Pérez

Authors
  1. Lucía Inglada-Pérez
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Correspondence to Lucía Inglada-Pérez .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Fac. Ciencias Economicas y, Empresariales, Universidad de Cantabria, avenida de los Castros s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain

    Pablo Coto-Millán

  2. Facultad Ciencias Económicas y, Empresariales, Universidad Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain

    Miguel Angel Pesquera

  3. Facultad Ciencias Económicas y, Empresariales, Universidad Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain

    Juan Castanedo

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Inglada-Pérez, L. (2010). The Demand for Maritime Transport: A Nonlinearity and Chaos Study. In: Coto-Millán, P., Pesquera, M., Castanedo, J. (eds) Essays on Port Economics. Contributions to Economics. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2425-4_6

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