Cycles in the Ship Building Industry: An Empirical Evidence

  • Pablo Coto-Millán
  • José María Sarabia-Alegría
  • Lucía Inglada-Pérez
Part of the Contributions to Economics book series (CE)


In the following short paper the possible cycles of the ship industry are studied through univariate autoregressive integrated moving average time series models. The adjusted model with data from the world’s fleets (1924–1994) presents an empirical contrast which seems to confirm the coexistence of long and short cycles in the maritime transport of 4 and 12.7 years, respectively. The result seems to confirm the well known Cobwed theorem in the case of short-run cycles and long-run stock cycles.


Short Cycle ARIMA Model Complex Root Suez Canal Maritime Transport 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pablo Coto-Millán
    • 1
  • José María Sarabia-Alegría
    • 1
  • Lucía Inglada-Pérez
    • 2
  1. 1.University of CantabriaSantanderSpain
  2. 2.U.N.E.D.MadridSpain

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