Executive Summary

Both industrialised and emerging countries face three major energy-related challenges in this century and over the next decades in particular: (1) The share of fossil fuels in current primary energy use, amounting to 80% globally, is likely to remain high during the next decades. This situation is in conflict with the pressing need to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions which are driving global climate change – a major threat to mankind in this century. (2) The peaking of oil production which is expected within the period 2015–2030 will cause sharp increases in fossil fuel prices if oil continues to increase. (3) The risks associated with sudden oil price increases are not small given the fact that oil production will be re-concentrated in the Middle East where two thirds of the remaining resources of conventional oil are located. The transportation sector is at particular risk as almost a hundred percent of the world’s road, ship and air transport depends on oil.