Forecasting Hotel Overnights in the Autonomous Region of the Azores
In the last eleven years the number of overnights in the Portuguese Autonomous Region of the Azores has increased five times. The impact of this increase in employment, in the balance of payments and in the economy in general as been very significant. Tourism planning is essential since the tourism industry has contributed to a significant share of the gross national product (8%).
Forecasting assumes a fundamental role in tourism planning, according to Archer (1987). Taking into consideration the above, this paper concentrates on the application of various time series methods in order to forecasting monthly overnights in hotels located in the same region between January 2002 and December 2004. Forecasts are based on monthly data covering January 1993 to December 2001.
The objective is to find the degree to which the forecasts of overnights segmented by country of origin, present smaller errors when compared with the forecasts of the total overnights in the Region. Each...
KeywordsTime Series Model Forecast Method Northern European Country Tourism Demand Classic Decomposition
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