Chapter 3 concluded that a major change in the overall German production is not a likely outcome of the macroeconomic analysis. With regard to employment, the most probable result is a modest increase in the number of jobs. However, in addition to the macroeconomic effects, the structural adjustments faced by the economy are of interest, too. There are three different structural effects which are analysed in this chapter:
sectoral effects resulting from the shift between economic branches
regional effects showing shifts in employment between the different regions, and
structural effects with regard to job characteristics and qualification requirements
The sectoral effects form the starting point of the analysis. A review was made of the results of macroeconomic studies which include a sectoral analysis. A more detailed examination is performed for two scenarios with a disaggregated sectoral analysis. The effects of the German Ecotax were analysed using an econometric model based on input-output tables (Ecotax scenario) within the studies from Meyer et al. (2001) in combination with Meyer et al. (2003). The study of Walz et al. (1995) analysed the effects of a policy mix to reduce CO2 emissions (policy mix scenario). Within that study, the sectoral changes were analysed using a dynamic input-output model which had been linked to an aggregated macroeconometric model.
KeywordsClimate Policy Structural Adjustment Regional Labour Market Herfindahl Index Sectoral Effect
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