Simulation Scenarios and Results
After having calibrated and validated the agent-based electricity sector simulation model, it can now be used for analyzing the impact of specific changes in the market structure or market rules. Results from correspondingly defined simulation scenarios may deliver helpful insights for policy makers, and advise regulatory intervention in the electricity industry. Three cases are studied in this chapter, and their implications for policy making are presented and discussed.
The influence of different market structures and market mechanisms on power trading outcomes, especially on resulting market prices, is assessed through specific simulation runs. In these simulation scenarios, only one aspect of the market structure or the trading arrangement is altered at time, while the others remain unchanged as compared to the reference scenario presented in Chap. 5, including demand patterns, initial conditions, and also the random number sequences. Consequently, differences in results can be ascribed solely to the induced changes between the simulation scenarios.
Three problems of interest in the German electricity sector are reported in the following: in Sect. 6.1, the impact of varying tendered minute reserve quantities are studied; in Sect. 6.2, resulting prices under two different settlement rules on the balancing power market are compared, and in Sect. 6.3, an altered market structure on the supply side is assessed. The policy implications that arise from the impact of the tested scenarios on day-ahead electricity and minute reserve prices are formulated in Sect. 6.4.
KeywordsElectricity Market Electricity Sector Uniform Price Price Rule Clearing Price
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