Conclusions

Abstract

Today’s energy industry is undergoing fundamental institutional, commercial and technological changes. Four major drivers of change, the ongoing market deregulation, technological change, firms conduct, and climate policy have been identified and described in Chap. 1. This survey suggests that urban areas are the most likely to see essential changes in their energy infrastructure. To study these changes a highly resolved agent-based energy model was developed aiming to address the following questions:

• Which distributed technologies percolate into energy systems, what de termines the diffusion rate, and how does the demand for and mix of energy change?

• How does this diffusion alter the ownership structure of generation technologies and what is the likely impact on central generation?

• To which degree do the status quo of infrastructure and ownership, corporate strategies, and public policy shape the future structure of an energy system and its related emissions, demands, and prices?