Drivers of Change and Energy Models

Abstract

Primary energy demand has been continuously growing over the last century and is expected to grow further.¹ A secure supply of energy is a condition for stability and growth of any economy (Ayres et al. 2003). Energy, as it occurs in nature, is rarely suited to provide energy services; most forms of energy need to be transformed first. Further, energy is not always found or cannot be transformed cost-effectively close to demand. As a result, a large international industry that extracts, transports, transforms, and supplies energy has developed.

The International Energy Agency anticipates the demand for primary energy to grow at 1.7% per annum until 2030. The growth rate over the last three decades has been 2.0% (IEA 2004).