The Dynamics of Complex Urban Systems: Theory and Application of the STASA-Model within the Scatter Project

  • Günter Haag
  • Jan Binder


In order to understand current settlement pattern and its future development the essential characteristics of the interrelated dynamics of the transport system, the urban/regional settlement pattern, demographic effects and the impacts of different policy measures and external effects have to be considered in an interdisciplinary approach. The modelling of the spatio-temporal patterns of a system consisting of different sub-models (population, transport, production, etc.) is used to demonstrate the necessity to link different theoretical frameworks. External shocks may sometimes require a modification of the system under consideration in the sense that new dynamic variables appear or previously useful variables disappear.

Policy advises on the base of different scenarios are useful in a planning context in the attempt to shape the future taking into account different scenario results, instead of just adapting to what may emerge. This procedure is especially important when essential parts of the system cannot be controlled by policy measures and depend on exogenous factors.

For the region of Stuttgart, the model framework was used within the SCATTER project. Four different policy scenarios: reference scenario (no additional policy measure applied); fiscal measures; regulatory measures applied to companies and increase of car use costs will be simulated in an recursive procedure. The results of the different policy measures will be discussed and critically evaluated with respect to urban sprawl and sustainable development aspects. The developed framework can also be used as simulation tool for the estimation of secondary induced traffic impacts.


Transition Rate Master Equation Urban Sprawl Reference Scenario Light Rail 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Batty M, Besussi E, Chin N (2003) Traffic, Urban Growth and Suburban Sprawl. Paper presented at Mobilidade Para Todos, Automóvel Clube de Portugal, Lisboa, Portugal, 18–19 September 2003Google Scholar
  2. Binder J, Haag G, Koller M (2001) Modelling and simulation of migration, regional employment development and regional gross wage payment in Germany: The bottom-up approach. In Uddevalla Symposium 2001 — Regional economies in transition. University of Trollhättan/Uddevalla. Research reports 01, vol. 1, pp. 119–142Google Scholar
  3. Binder J, Haag G, Rabino G (2003) Analysis and modelling of commuter flows: Application to the regions of Stuttgart and Turin. Jahrbuch der Regionalwissenschaften 23: 117–139Google Scholar
  4. BMVBW (1999) Modellierung agglomerationsbedingter Einflüsse auf wegebauinduzierte Beförderungsprozesse für die Bundesverkehrswegeplanung. Der Bundesminister für Verkehr, Bau-und Wohnungswesen, FE-Nr. 90546/1998Google Scholar
  5. Brown LA, Holmes J (1971) The Delimitation of Functional Regions, Nodal Regions and Hierarchy by Functional Distance Approaches, Regional Science 11: 57–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Domencich TA, McFadden D (1975) Urban Travel Demand: A Behavioural Analysis. North Holland, AmsterdamGoogle Scholar
  7. EUROSIL 1999: European Strategic Intermodal Links, Project funded by DG VII, within the 4th Framework ProgrammeGoogle Scholar
  8. Fazio RH, Zanna MP (1981) Direct Experience and Attitude-Behaviour Consistency. In: Berkovitz L (ed) Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 51: 161–202Google Scholar
  9. Fechner GT (1877) In Sachen der Psychophysik. Breitkopf und Haertel, LeipzigGoogle Scholar
  10. Fischer M, Haag G, Sonis M, Weidlich W (1988) Account of Different Views in Dynamic Choice Processes. WSG Discussion Paper 1/88, Wirtschaftsuniversitaet, WienGoogle Scholar
  11. Gayda S, Boon F, Schaillée N, Batty M, Besussi E, Chin N, Haag G, Martino A, Lautso K, Noöel C, Dormois R (2003a) The SCATTER project-Sprawling cities and transport: From Evaluation to Recommendation. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference 2003, Strasbourg, October 2003Google Scholar
  12. Gayda S, Boon F, Schaillée N, Batty M, Besussi E, Chin N, Haag G, Martino A, Lautso K, Noöel C, Dormois R (2003b) The SCATTER project-Sprawling cities and transport: From Evaluation to Recommendation. Paper presented at the 5th Biennial of Towns and Town Planners, Barcelona, April 2003Google Scholar
  13. Goodwin PB (1994) Traffic Growth and the Dynamics of Sustainable Transport Policies. ESRC Transport Studies unit, University of OxfordGoogle Scholar
  14. Haag G, Weidlich W (1984) A Stochastic Theory of Interregional Migration. Geographical Analysis 16: 331–357CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Haag G (1989) Dynamic Decision Theory. Applications to Urban and Regional Topics. Kluwer Academic Publ., DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  16. Haag G (2002) Sprawling Cities in Germany. FrancoAngeli, MilanGoogle Scholar
  17. Haag G, Binder J (2001a) Vergleichende Untersuchung der Wirkungszusammenhaenge zwischen Pendelverkehr und der räumlichen Organisationsstruktur der Region Stuttgart und der Provinz Turin. Study in order of the Stuttgart Region. Steinbeis-Transfer Centre Applied System Analysis, StuttgartGoogle Scholar
  18. Haag G, Binder J (2001b) Modellgestützte Analyse zur regionalen Entwicklung von Beschäftigungsvolumen, Lohnsummen und Beitragseinnahmen. Study in order of the Institute of Labour and Employment Research (IAB) Nuernberg. Steinbeis-Transfer Centre Applied System Analysis, StuttgartGoogle Scholar
  19. Haag G, Gruetzmann K (2001) Transport and Urban Development. In: Clark G, Madden M (eds) Regional Science in Business. Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  20. Haag G, Rabino G, Binder J (2001): Vergleichende Untersuchung der Wirkungszusammenhänge zwischen Pendelverkehr und der räumlichen Organisationsstruktur einer Region/Metropole, Fallstudien in Italien und Deutschland. DAAD-Project VIGONI, 314-vigoni-dr, StuttgartGoogle Scholar
  21. Holmberg I, Johansson B, Strömquist U (2001) A simultaneous model of long-term regional job and population changes. Jönköping International Business SchoolGoogle Scholar
  22. Johansson B, Klaesson J, Olsson M (2001) Time Distances and Labour Market Integration. In Uddevalla Symposium 2001 — Regional economies in transition. University of Trollhättan/Uddevalla. Research reports 01, vol 1, pp 255–279Google Scholar
  23. Kádas SA, Klafszky E (1967) Estimation of the parameters in the gravity modell for the trip distribution. Regional Science and Urban Economics 6: 439–457CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Mills ES, Carlino G (1989) Dynamic of county growth. In: Andersson AE, Batten DF, Johansson B, Nijkamp P (eds) Advances in spatial theory and dynamics. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp 195–206Google Scholar
  25. Nijkamp P, Reggiani A (1992) Interaction, Evolution and Chaos in Space. Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  26. Oppenheim N (1995) Urban travel demand modeling: From individual choices to general equilibrium. John Wiley & Sons, LondonGoogle Scholar
  27. SCATTER (2004) Sprawling Cities and Transport: from Evaluation to Recommendations, European Commission, Key Action 4: City of Tomorrow and Cultural Heritage, EVK4-CT-2001-00063 RSGoogle Scholar
  28. Steierwald G, Kühne HD (eds) (1993) Stadtverkehrsplanung. Springer, HeidelbergGoogle Scholar
  29. TRANSECON (2004) Urban Transport and local Socio-Economic Development, European Commission, GMA1-2000-27049Google Scholar
  30. Weber A (1909) Über den Standort der Industrien. Mohr, TübingenGoogle Scholar
  31. Weidlich W, Haag G (1984) Concepts and Models of a Quantitative Sociology. Springer Series in Synergetics. Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  32. Weidlich W, Haag G (1988) Interregional Migration. Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  33. Weidlich W, Haag G (eds) (1999) ITEM: Integrated Transport and Evolutionary Model. Sponsoring Project by DaimlerChrysler, Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  34. Wilson AG (1970) Entropy in Urban and Regional Modelling. Pion, LondonGoogle Scholar
  35. Wilson AG (1981) The evolution of spatial structure. In: Bennett RJ (ed) European Progress in Spatial Analysis. Pion Books, LondonGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Physica-Verlag Heidelberg and Accademia di Architettura, Mendrisio, Switzerland 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Günter Haag
    • 1
  • Jan Binder
    • 1
  1. 1.Steinbeis-Transfer Centre Applied Systems Analysis (STASA)StuttgartGermany

Personalised recommendations