Selection of Mathematics Model for Daily Diagram Prediction According to Box-Jenkins Method
The paper concerns selection of mathematical statistical model for prediction of time series of Heat Supply Daily Diagram (HSDD). This forecast is utilized for control of technological process in real time. The solved prediction is specially determined for qualitative-quantitative method of hot-water piping heat output control — Baláte system which enables to eliminate transport delay by the qualitative control only. Importance of it is increased namely for controlled systems having great time constants and great transport delay. The model according to BOX-JENKINS is used for calculation of time series prediction. The credibility of the tested model is estimated from three points of view.
KeywordsTime Series Periodic Component Time Series Prediction Heat Supply System Input Window
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