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Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services

  • Peter McBurney
  • Simon Parsons
Part of the Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing book series (STUDFUZZ, volume 88)

Abstract

This paper outlines an application of belief functions to forecasting the demand for a new service in a new category, based on new technology. Forecasting demand for a new product or service is always difficult. It is more so when the product category itself is new, and so unfamiliar to potential consumers, and the quality of service of the product is dependent upon a new technology whose actual performance quality is not known in advance. In such a situation, market research is often unreliable, and so the beliefs of key stakeholders regarding the true values of underlying variables typically vary considerably. Belief functions provide a means of representing and combining these varied beliefs which is more expressive than traditional point probability estimates.

Keywords

Market Research Wall Street Journal Conjoint Analysis Forecast Demand Belief Function 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter McBurney
    • 1
  • Simon Parsons
    • 1
  1. 1.Intelligent Systems Applications Group, Department of Electronic Engineering, Queen Mary & Westfield CollegeUniversity of LondonLondonUK

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