Abstract
In this chapter, we give a fuzzy system analytic model to assess risk of natural disasters. We suppose that a natural disaster system includes risk source, site, damage and loss. In the model, information distribution technique is used to calculate basic fuzzy relationships showing the historical experience of natural disasters. In section 11.1, we review classical system model for risk assessment of natural disaster and give some definitions to standardize the concepts. In section 11.2, the method of information distribution is employed to calculate the fuzzy relationship between magnitude and probability. Section 11.3 gives fuzzy-system analytic model. In section 11.4, we use the model to study the fuzzy risk of earthquake disaster for a city. The chapter is then summarized with a conclusion in section 11.5.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anderson, J. G. (1978), On the attenuation of Modified Mercalli Intensity with distance in the United States. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 68, pp. 1147–1179
Cornell,C.A. (1968), Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 58, pp. 1583–160
Ellsworth, W. L., Matthews, M. V., Nadeau, R. M., Nishenko, S. P., Reasenberg, P.A., and Simpson, R. W. (1998), A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities. Proceedings of the Second Joint Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research, pp. 135–149
Hagiwara, Y. (1974), Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain. Tectonophysics 23, pp. 323–318
Huang, C.F. (1996), Fuzzy risk assessment of urban natural hazards, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 83, pp. 271–282
Huang, C.F., and Ruan, D. (1999), Systems analytic models for fuzzy risk estimation. Zadeh, L.A. and Kacprzyk, J. (eds): Computing with Words in Information/Intelligent Systems 2. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 195
Huang, C.F. and Wang, J.D. (1995), Technology of Fuzzy Information Optimization Processing and Applications. Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Musson, R. (1998), Seismicity and Earthquake Hazard in the UK. http://www.gsrg.nmh.ac.uk/hazard/hazuk.htm
Musson, R.M.W. (1994), A Catalogue of British Earthquakes. British Geological Survey Technical Report, No. WL/94/04
Nishenko, S. P., and Buland, R. (1987), A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 77, pp. 1382–1399
Rikitake, T. (1974), Probability of an earthquake occurrence as estimated from crustal strain. Tectonophysics 23, pp. 299–312
Utsu, T. (1972a), Large earthquakes near Hokkaido and the expectancy of the occurrence of a large earthquake of Nemuro. Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction 7, pp. 7–13
Utsu, T.(1972ó), Aftershocks and earthquake statistics (IV). Journal of the Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University Series VII (Geophysics) 4, pp. 1–42
Utsu, T. (1984), Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes. Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo 59, pp. 5366
Xiu, X. W. and Huang, C.F. (1989), Fuzzy identification between dynamic response of structure and structural earthquake damage. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 57, (in Chinese).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Huang, C., Shi, Y. (2002). System Analytic Model for Natural Disasters. In: Towards Efficient Fuzzy Information Processing. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, vol 99. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-1785-0_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-1785-0_11
Publisher Name: Physica, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-7908-2511-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-7908-1785-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive