# Fuzzy Risk Analysis

• Chongfu Huang
• Yong Shi
Part of the Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing book series (STUDFUZZ, volume 99)

## Abstract

Nobody can precisely estimate the future risks — environment, health, and safety — unless he knows all aspects related to the risk system he studies. In practical cases, it is impossible to avoid the gaps with respect to risk assessment, which cause fuzziness (imprecision, vagueness, incompleteness, etc.) Therefore, we have to deal with the fuzziness of a risk system. This chapter reviews some basic concepts of risk assessment and then uses the information diffusion techniques to develop fuzzy risk analysis. Section 10.1 introduces the concept of risk. In section 10.2 we briefly outline the principles of risk recognition and management for environment, health, and safety. Section 10.3 surveys some studies in fuzzy risk analysis. Based on natures of risk, in section 10.4, we give a general definition of fuzzy risk. In section 10.5, we review some classical models to calculate probability-risk. In section 10.6, the principle of information diffusion is employed directly to assess the probability-risk from a given sample. Section 10.7 gives an application in risk assessment of flood disaster. We conclude the chapter with a summary in section 10.8.

## Keywords

Fuzzy Number Risk System Information Diffusion Flood Disaster Fuzzy Event

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## Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2002

## Authors and Affiliations

• Chongfu Huang
• 1
• Yong Shi
• 2
1. 1.Institute of Resources ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
2. 2.College of Information Science and TechnologyUniversity of Nebraska at OmahaOmahaUSA