Abstract
The Cloud Type product, developed by the Satellite Application Facility to support to nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (SAFNWC) of EUMETSAT and based on Météosat-8/SEVIRI, identifies cloud categories, and especially low and very low clouds which are first estimates of areas where fog is likely to occur. This cloud type is combined with precipitation information from radar data and with hourly diagnostic analyses of 2-metre relative humidity and 10-metre wind to elaborate an hourly analysis of fog probability. This analysis provides four levels of fog probability with a 3-kilometre horizontal resolution: No risk, low-level risk, medium-level risk and high-level risk. An evaluation of such fog probability analyses versus a one-year set of French hourly SYNOP reports shows encouraging results (potential of detection = 0.73 for low and medium and high-level risks), even if false alarm ratios remain high. Most of the non-detections occur at twilight and are due to satellite non-detections. Eventually, we show case studies that clearly illustrate the high potential of the method.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Benjamin, S.G., Dévényi, D., Weygandt, S. S., Brundage, K. J., Brown, J. M., Grell, G. A., Kim, D., Schwartz, B. E., Smirnova, T. G., and Smith, T. L. (2004), An hourly assimilation-forecast cycle: the RUC, Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 495–518.
Bouttier, F., Hello, G., Seity, Y., and Malardel, S. (2006), Progress of the AROME mesoscale NWP project. In CAS/JSC WGNE “Blue Book” annual report “Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modelling” (ed. J. Côté.).
Bubnová, R., Horányi, A., and Malardel, S. (1993), International project ARPEGE-ALADIN. In EWGLAM Newsletter 22 (ed. I. R. M., Belgium), pp. 117–130.
Calas, C. (1997), Apport ďune analyse à mésoéchelle pour la prévision immédiate des systèmes convectifs. Ph.D. Thesis, Université Paul Sabatier, Available from Université Paul Sabatier, 118 route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse cedex, France.
Derrien, M. and Le Gléau, H. (2005), MSG/SEVIRI cloud mask and type from SAFNWC, Internat. J. Remote Sensing 26(21), 4707–4732.
Herzegh, P., Benjamin, S., Rasmussen, R., Tsui, T., Wiener, G., and Zwack, P. (2003), Development of automated analysis and forecast products for adverse ceiling and visibility conditions. In 19th Internat. Conf. on Interactive Information Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology Proceedings (Am. Meteor. Soc.).
Le Gléau, H., and Derrien, M. (2005), Nowcasting and very short-range forecasting SAF. Validation report for the PGE01-02-03 of the SAFNWC/MSG, Météo-France CMS. Available from http://www.meteorologie.eu.org/safnwc
Rabier, F., Thépaut, J.-N., and Courtier, P. (1998), Extended assimilation and forecast experiments with a 4D-VAR system, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 124, 1861–1887.
Radnóti, G., Ajjaji, R., Bubnová, R., Caian, M., Cordoneanu, E., v. d. Emde, K., Gril, J.-D., Hoffman, J., Horányi, A., Issara, S., Ivanovici, V., Janoušek, M., Joly, A., LeMoigne, P., and Malardel, S. (1995), The spectral limited area model ARPEGE-ALADIN. In PWPR Report series n.7 — WMO TD n. 699 (ed. WMO), pp. 111–118.
WMO. Manual on Codes—International Codes (1995, ed.), World Meteorological Organization, Volume 1.1 (Annex II to WMO Technical Regulations).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Birkhäuser Verlag
About this paper
Cite this paper
Guidard, V., Tzanos, D. (2007). Analysis of Fog Probability from a Combination of Satellite and Ground Observation Data. In: Gultepe, I. (eds) Fog and Boundary Layer Clouds: Fog Visibility and Forecasting. Pageoph Topical Volumes. Birkhäuser Basel. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-8419-7_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-8419-7_7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Birkhäuser Basel
Print ISBN: 978-3-7643-8418-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-7643-8419-7
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)