Advertisement

The epidemiology of influenza and its control

  • Lone Simonsen
  • Cécile Viboud
  • Robert J. Taylor
  • Mark A. Miller
Part of the Birkhäuser Advances in Infectious Diseases book series (BAID)

Abstract

In this chapter we highlight how recent advances in influenza epidemiology can inform existing strategies for disease control. As a field, influenza epidemiology has benefited greatly from analysis of large data sets regarding hospitalization, mortality, and outpatient visits. These data have allowed comparison of the impact of influenza in various climates and the evaluation of the direct and indirect benefits of vaccination, the latter through the vaccination of “transmitter populations” such as school children, to achieve herd immunity. Moreover, the resolution of influenza epidemiology has undergone a leap to the molecular level due to the integration of new antigenic and viral genomic data with classical epidemiological indicators. Finally, the new data have led to an infusion of quantitative studies from the fields of evolutionary and molecular biology, population genetics and mathematics.

The progress can be seen in many forms. The emerging field of molecular influenza epidemiology is providing deeper insight into global patterns of viral emergence, the important role of reassortment in generating genetic novelty, and global diffusion of virus variants — including the mysterious but crucial role of the Tropics, especially Southeast Asia, as a source of new variants. Deeper stratification of contemporary and historic epidemiological data is providing a more detailed picture of the effect of age and other host characteristics on outcomes, as well as better estimates of the transmissibility of pandemic and seasonal influenza viruses. Re-examination of observational studies of vaccine effectiveness in seniors is leading to reconsideration of seasonal and pandemic vaccine priorities, while mathematical modelers have developed tools to explore optimal strategies for mitigating a future pandemic. The field of influenza epidemiology has rapidly progressed in the past decade and become truly multidisciplinary. Progress could be sustained in the next decade by even closer ties with virology, evolutionary biology, immunology, and genetics.

Keywords

Influenza Virus Influenza Vaccination Influenza Pandemic VACC INATION Versus IRUS 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    Nicholson K, Hay A (1998) Textbook of influenza. Blackwell, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Schoenbaum S (1996) Impact of influenza in persons and populations. In: L Brown, A Hampson, R Webster (eds): Options for the Control of Influenza III. Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, 17–25Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Reichert TA, Simonsen L, Sharma A, Pardo SA, Fedson DS, Miller MA (2004) Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959–1999. Am J Epidemiol 160: 492–502PubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Simonsen L (1999) The global impact of influenza on morbidity and mortality. Vaccine 17 (Suppl 1): S3–10PubMedGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Thompson WW, Shay DK, Weintraub E, Brammer L, Cox N, Anderson LJ, Fukuda K (2003) Mortality associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in the United States. JAMA 289: 179–186PubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Serfling R (1963) Methods for current statistical analysis of excess pneumoniainfluenza deaths. Public Health Rep 78: 494–506Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Choi K, Thacker SB (1981) An evaluation of influenza mortality surveillance, 1962–1979. I. Time series forecasts of expected pneumonia and influenza deaths. Am J Epidemiol 113: 215–226PubMedGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Carrat F, Valleron AJ (1995) Influenza mortality among the elderly in France, 1980–90: How many deaths may have been avoided through vaccination? J Epidemiol Community Health 49: 419–425PubMedGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Williamson GD, Stroup DF, Arden NH, Schonberger LB (1997) The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: Introducing a severity index. Am J Public Health 87: 1944–1950PubMedGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Simonsen L, Fukuda K, Schonberger LB, Cox NJ (2000) The impact of influenza epidemics on hospitalizations. J Infect Dis 181: 831–837PubMedGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Thompson WW, Shay DK, Weintraub E, Brammer L, Bridges CB, Cox NJ, Fukuda K (2004) Influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States. JAMA 292: 1333–1340PubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Simonsen L, Reichert TA, Viboud C, Blackwelder WC, Taylor RJ, Miller MA (2005) Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population. Arch Intern Med 165: 265–272PubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Viboud C, Earn DJ, Simonsen L (2006) Mortality due to influenza in the United States-An Annualized Regression approach using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data. Am J Epidemiol 163: 181–187PubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Viboud C, Bjornstad ON, Smith DL, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grenfell BT (2006) Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447–451PubMedGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Simonsen L, Olson D, Viboud C, Miller M (2004) Pandemic influenza and mortality: Past evidence and projections for the future. In: S Knobler, K Oberholtzer (eds): Forum on microbial threats. Pandemic influenza: Assessing capabilities for prevention and response. Institute of Medicine, The National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (2004) Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432: 904–906PubMedGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Olson DR, Simonsen L, Edelson PJ, Morse SS (2005) Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102: 11059–11063PubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Viboud C, Grais RF, Lafont BA, Miller MA, Simonsen L (2005) Multinational impact of the 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic: Evidence for a smoldering pandemic. J Infect Dis 192: 233–248PubMedGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Chowell G, Ammon CE, Hengartner NW, Hyman JM (2006) Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions. J Theor Biol 241: 193–204PubMedGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Handel A, Miller MA, Simonsen L (2006) Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. Vaccine 24: 6701–6707PubMedGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Miller MA, Simonsen L (2006) 1951 influenza epidemic, England and Wales, Canada, and the United States. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 661–668PubMedGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Andreasen V, Viboud C, Simonsen L (2007) Epidemiologic characterization of the summer wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Copenhagen: Implications for pandemic control strategies. J Infect Dis 197: 270–278Google Scholar
  23. 23.
    Chowell G, Miller MA, Viboud C (2007) Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: Transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol Infect 2: 1–13Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt LM (2007) Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. J R Soc Interface 4: 155–166PubMedGoogle Scholar
  25. 25.
    Olson DR, Heffernan RT, Paladini M, Konty K, Weiss D, Mostashari F (2007) Monitoring the impact of influenza by age: Emergency Department fever and respiratory complaint surveillance in New York City. PLoS Med 4: e247PubMedGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Levin SA, Earn DJ (2004) Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101: 16915–16916PubMedGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Viboud C, Alonso WJ, Simonsen L (2006) Influenza in tropical regions. PLoS Med 3: e89PubMedGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Alonso WJ, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Hirano EW, Daufenbach LZ, Miller MA (2007) Seasonality of influenza in Brazil: A traveling wave from the Amazon to the subtropics. Am J Epidemiol 165: 1434–1442PubMedGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Grenfell BT, Pybus OG, Gog JR, Wood JL, Daly JM, Mumford JA, Holmes EC (2004) Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens. Science 303: 327–332PubMedGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Holmes EC, Ghedin E, Miller N, Taylor J, Bao Y, St George K, Grenfell BT, Salzberg SL, Fraser CM, Lipman DJ, Taubenberger JK (2005) Whole-genome analysis of human influenza A virus reveals multiple persistent lineages and reassortment among recent H3N2 viruses. PLoS Biol 3: e300PubMedGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Nelson MI, Holmes EC (2007) The evolution of epidemic influenza. Nat Rev Genet 8: 196–205PubMedGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Taylor J, George KS, Griesemer SB, Ghedin E, Sengamalay NA, Spiro DJ et al (2006) Stochastic Processes Are Key Determinants of Short-Term Evolution in Influenza A Virus. PLoS Pathog 2: e125PubMedGoogle Scholar
  33. 34.
    Cox NJ, Subbarao K (2000) Global epidemiology of influenza: Past and present. Annu Rev Med 51: 407–421PubMedGoogle Scholar
  34. 35.
    Glezen WP (1982) Serious morbidity and mortality associated with influenza epidemics. Epidemiol Rev 4: 25–44PubMedGoogle Scholar
  35. 36.
    Monto AS (2002) Epidemiology of viral respiratory infections. Am J Med 112 (Suppl 6A): 4S–12SPubMedGoogle Scholar
  36. 37.
    Noble G (1982) Epidemiological and clinical aspects of influenza. CRC Press, Boca RatonGoogle Scholar
  37. 38.
    Stuart-Harris C (1979) Epidemiology of influenza in man. Br Med Bull 35: 3–8PubMedGoogle Scholar
  38. 39.
    Glezen WP, Taber LH, Frank AL, Gruber WC, Piedra P (1997) Influenza virus infections in infants. Pediatr Infect Dis J 16: 1065–1068PubMedGoogle Scholar
  39. 40.
    Chiu SS, Lau YL, Chan KH, Wong WH, Peiris JS (2002) Influenza-related hospitalizations among children in Hong Kong. N Engl J Med 347: 2097–2103PubMedGoogle Scholar
  40. 41.
    Chow A, Ma S, Ling AE, Chew SK (2006) Influenza-associated deaths in tropical Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 114–121PubMedGoogle Scholar
  41. 40.
    Chiu SS, Lau YL, Chan KH, Wong WH, Peiris JS (2002) Influenza-related hospitalizations among children in Hong Kong. N Engl J Med 347: 2097–2103PubMedGoogle Scholar
  42. 41.
    Chow A, Ma S, Ling AE, Chew SK (2006) Influenza-associated deaths in tropical Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 114–121PubMedGoogle Scholar
  43. 42.
    Wong CM, Yang L, Chan KP, Leung GM, Chan KH, Guan Y, Lam TH, Hedley AJ, Peiris JS (2006) Influenza associated weekly hospitalization in a subtropical city. PLoS Med 3: e89Google Scholar
  44. 43.
    Wong CM, Chan KP, Hedley AJ, Peiris JS (2004) Influenza-associated mortality in Hong Kong. Clin Infect Dis 39: 1611–1617PubMedGoogle Scholar
  45. 44.
    Assaad F, Cockburn WC, Sundaresan TK (1973) Use of excess mortality from respiratory diseases in the study of influenza. Bull World Health Organ 49: 219–233PubMedGoogle Scholar
  46. 45.
    Rizzo C (2007) Trends for influenza-related deaths during pandemic and epidemic seasons, Italy, 1969–2001. Emerg Infect Dis 13: 694–699PubMedGoogle Scholar
  47. 46.
    Rocchi G, Ragona G, De Felici A, Muzzi A (1974) Epidemiological evaluation of influenza in Italy. Bull World Health Organ 50: 401–406PubMedGoogle Scholar
  48. 47.
    Viboud C, Boelle PY, Pakdaman K, Carrat F, Valleron AJ, Flahault A (2004) Influenza epidemics in the United States, France, and Australia, 1972–1997. Emerg Infect Dis 10: 32–39PubMedGoogle Scholar
  49. 48.
    Imaz MS, Eimann M, Poyard E, Savy V (2006) [Influenza associated excess mortality in Argentina: 1992–2002]. Rev Chilena Infectol 23: 297–306PubMedGoogle Scholar
  50. 49.
    Stroup DF, Thacker SB, Herndon JL (1988) Application of multiple time series analysis to the estimation of pneumonia and influenza mortality by age 1962–1983. Stat Med 7: 1045–1059PubMedGoogle Scholar
  51. 50.
    Barker WH (1986) Excess pneumonia and influenza associated hospitalization during influenza epidemics in the United States, 1970–78. Am J Public Health 76: 761–765PubMedGoogle Scholar
  52. 51.
    Simonsen L, Taylor R, Viboud C, Dushoff J, Miller M (2006) US flu mortality estimates are based on solid science. Br Med J 332: 177–178Google Scholar
  53. 52.
    Thompson W, Weintraub E, Cheng P et al (2007) Comparing methods for estimating influenza-associated deaths in the United States: 1976/1977 through 2002/2003 respiratory seasons. In: Options for the Control of Influenza VI. Toronto, CanadaGoogle Scholar
  54. 53.
    Fleming DM (2000) The contribution of influenza to combined acute respiratory infections, hospital admissions, and deaths in winter. Commun Dis Public Health 3: 32–38PubMedGoogle Scholar
  55. 54.
    Schanzer DL, Tam TW, Langley JM, Winchester BT (2007) Influenza-attributable deaths, Canada 1990–1999. Epidemiol Infect 135: 1109–1116PubMedGoogle Scholar
  56. 55.
    Rizzo C, Viboud C, Montomoli E, Simonsen L, Miller MA (2006) Influenzarelated mortality in the Italian elderly: No decline associated with increasing vaccination coverage. Vaccine 24: 6468–6475PubMedGoogle Scholar
  57. 56.
    Bhat N, Wright JG, Broder KR, Murray EL, Greenberg ME, Glover MJ, Likos AM, Posey DL, Klimov A, Lindstrom SE et al (2005) Influenza-associated deaths among children in the United States, 2003–2004. N Engl J Med 353: 2559–2567PubMedGoogle Scholar
  58. 57.
    Elliot AJ, Fleming DM (2006) Surveillance of influenza-like illness in England and Wales during 1966–2006. Eur Surveill 11: 249–250Google Scholar
  59. 58.
    Hall IM, Gani R, Hughes HE, Leach S (2007) Real-time epidemic forecasting for pandemic influenza. Epidemiol Infect 135: 372–385PubMedGoogle Scholar
  60. 59.
    Brownstein JS, Kleinman KP, Mandl KD (2005) Identifying pediatric age groups for influenza vaccination using a real-time regional surveillance system. Am J Epidemiol 162: 686–693PubMedGoogle Scholar
  61. 60.
    Crighton EJ, Elliott SJ, Moineddin R, Kanaroglou P, Upshur RE (2007) An exploratory spatial analysis of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in Ontario by age and gender. Epidemiol Infect 135: 253–261PubMedGoogle Scholar
  62. 61.
    Fleming DM, Zambon M, Bartelds AI, de Jong JC (1999) The duration and magnitude of influenza epidemics: A study of surveillance data from sentinel general practices in England, Wales and the Netherlands. Eur J Epidemiol 15: 467–473PubMedGoogle Scholar
  63. 62.
    Fleming DM, Pannell RS, Cross KW (2005) Mortality in children from influenza and respiratory syncytial virus. J Epidemiol Community Health 59: 586–590PubMedGoogle Scholar
  64. 63.
    Fleming DM, Cross KW (1993) Respiratory syncytial virus or influenza? Lancet 342: 1507–1510PubMedGoogle Scholar
  65. 64.
    Fleming DM, Elliott AJ, Cross KW (2007) Is routine seasonal influenza vaccination of elderly people an effective community policy? In: Options for the Control of Influenza VI. Toronto, CanadaGoogle Scholar
  66. 65.
    Falsey AR, Hennessey PA, Formica MA, Cox C, Walsh EE (2005) Respiratory syncytial virus infection in elderly and high-risk adults. N Engl J Med 352: 1749–1759PubMedGoogle Scholar
  67. 66.
    Simonsen L, Viboud C (2005) Respiratory syncytial virus infection in elderly adults. N Engl J Med 353: 422–423PubMedGoogle Scholar
  68. 67.
    Izurieta HS, Thompson WW, Kramarz P, Shay DK, Davis RL, DeStefano F, Black S, Shinefield H, Fukuda K (2000) Influenza and the rates of hospitalization for respiratory disease among infants and young children. N Engl J Med 342: 232–239PubMedGoogle Scholar
  69. 68.
    Weber MW, Mulholland EK, Greenwood BM (1998) Respiratory syncytial virus infection in tropical and developing countries. Trop Med Int Health 3: 268–280PubMedGoogle Scholar
  70. 69.
    Monto AS (1994) Studies of the community and family: Acute respiratory illness and infection. Epidemiol Rev 16: 351–373PubMedGoogle Scholar
  71. 70.
    Monto AS, Cavallaro JJ (1971) The Tecumseh study of respiratory illness. II. Patterns of occurrence of infection with respiratory pathogens, 1965–1969. Am J Epidemiol 94: 280–289PubMedGoogle Scholar
  72. 71.
    Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS (2006) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 442: 448–452PubMedGoogle Scholar
  73. 72.
    Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437: 209–214PubMedGoogle Scholar
  74. 73.
    Spicer CC (1979) The mathematical modelling of influenza epidemics. Br Med Bull 35: 23–28PubMedGoogle Scholar
  75. 74.
    Spicer CC, Lawrence CJ (1984) Epidemic influenza in Greater London. J Hyg (Camb) 93: 105–112Google Scholar
  76. 75.
    Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Holmes EC (2007) Phylogenetic analysis reveals the global migration of seasonal influenza a viruses. PLoS Pathog 3: 1220–1228PubMedGoogle Scholar
  77. 76.
    Kilbourne ED (1997) Perspectives on pandemics: A research agenda. J Infect Dis 176 (Suppl 1): S29–S31PubMedGoogle Scholar
  78. 77.
    Murray CJ, Lopez AD, Chin B, Feehan D, Hill KH (2006) Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: A quantitative analysis. Lancet 368: 2211–2218PubMedGoogle Scholar
  79. 78.
    Barry J (2004) The great influenza: The epic story of the deadliest plague in history. Viking Penguin, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  80. 79.
    Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K (1998) Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: A pattern of changing age distribution. J Infect Dis 178: 53–60PubMedGoogle Scholar
  81. 80.
    Masurel N, Marine WM (1973) Recycling of Asian and Hong Kong influenza A virus hemagglutinins in man. Am J Epidemiol 97: 44–49PubMedGoogle Scholar
  82. 81.
    Simonsen L, Reichert TA, Miller M (2003) The virtues of antigenic sin: Consequences of pandemic recycling on influenza-associated mortality. In: Y Kawaoka, (ed): Options for the Control of Influenza V. International Congress Series 1263, Elsevier, Okinawa, 791–794Google Scholar
  83. 82.
    McGregor IA, Schild GC, Billewicz WZ, Williams K (1979) The epidemiology of influenza in a tropical (Gambian) environment. Br Med Bull 35:15–22PubMedGoogle Scholar
  84. 83.
    Kash JC, Tumpey TM, Proll SC, Carter V, Perwitasari O, Thomas MJ, Basler CF, Palese P, Taubenberger JK, García-Sastre A et al (2006) Genomic analysis of increased host immune and cell death responses induced by 1918 influenza virus. Nature 443: 578–581PubMedGoogle Scholar
  85. 84.
    Kobasa D, Jones SM, Shinya K, Kash JC, Copps J, Ebihara H, Hatta Y, Kim JH, Halfmann P, Hatta M et al (2007) Aberrant innate immune response in lethal infection of macaques with the 1918 influenza virus. Nature 445: 319–323PubMedGoogle Scholar
  86. 85.
    Tumpey TM, Basler CF, Aguilar PV, Zeng H, Solórzano A, Swayne DE, Cox NJ, Katz JM, Taubenberger JK, Palese P, García-Sastre A (2005) Characterization of the reconstructed 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic virus. Science 310: 77–80PubMedGoogle Scholar
  87. 86.
    Palese P (2004) Influenza: Old and new threats. Nat Med 10: S82–S87PubMedGoogle Scholar
  88. 87.
    Stuart-Harris CH (1970) Pandemic influenza: An unresolved problem in prevention. J Infect Dis 122: 108–115PubMedGoogle Scholar
  89. 88.
    Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini M Jr, Macken CA (2006) Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103: 5935–5940PubMedGoogle Scholar
  90. 89.
    Longini M, Jr., Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DA, Halloran ME (2005) Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309: 1083–1087PubMedGoogle Scholar
  91. 90.
    Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM (2007) From the cover: The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 7588–7593PubMedGoogle Scholar
  92. 91.
    Glass K, Barnes B (2007) How much would closing schools reduce transmission during an influenza pandemic? Epidemiology 18: 623–628PubMedGoogle Scholar
  93. 92.
    Glass RJ, Glass LM, Beyeler WE, Min HJ (2006) Targeted social distancing design for pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 1671–1681PubMedGoogle Scholar
  94. 93.
    Smith DJ (2006) Predictability and preparedness in influenza control. Science 312: 392–394PubMedGoogle Scholar
  95. 94.
    Peiris JS, de Jong MD, Guan Y (2007) Avian influenza virus (H5N1): A threat to human health. Clin Microbiol Rev 20: 243–267PubMedGoogle Scholar
  96. 95.
    Subbarao K, Luke C (2007) H5N1 viruses and vaccines. PLoS Pathog 3: e40PubMedGoogle Scholar
  97. 96.
    Taubenberger JK, Morens DM, Fauci AS (2007) The next influenza pandemic: Can it be predicted? JAMA 297: 2025–2027PubMedGoogle Scholar
  98. 97.
    Webster RG, Hulse-Post DJ, Sturm-Ramirez KM, Guan Y, Peiris M, Smith G, Chen H (2007) Changing epidemiology and ecology of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses. Avian Dis 51: 269–272PubMedGoogle Scholar
  99. 98.
    Bermejo-Martin JF, Kelvin DJ, Guan Y, Chen H, Perez-Breña P, Casas I, Arranz E, de Lejarazu RO (2007) Neuraminidase antibodies and H5N1: Geographicdependent influenza epidemiology could determine cross-protection against emerging strains. PLoS Med 4: e212PubMedGoogle Scholar
  100. 99.
    Demicheli V, Rivetti D, Deeks JJ, Jefferson TO (2004) Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 3: CD001269PubMedGoogle Scholar
  101. 100.
    Simonsen L, Taylor RJ, Viboud C, Miller MA, Jackson LA (2007) Mortality benefits of influenza vaccination in elderly people: An ongoing controversy. Lancet Infect Dis 7: 658–666PubMedGoogle Scholar
  102. 101.
    Reichert TA, Pardo SA, Valleron AJ et al (2007) National vaccination programs and trends in influenza-attributable mortality in four countries. In: Options for the Control of Influenza VI. Toronto, CanadaGoogle Scholar
  103. 102.
    Goodwin K, Viboud C, Simonsen L (2005) Antibody response to influenza vaccination in the elderly: A quantitative review. Vaccine 24: 1159–1169PubMedGoogle Scholar
  104. 103.
    Langmuir AD, Henderson DA, Serfling RE (1964) The epidemiological basis for the control of influenza. Am J Public Health Nations Health 54: 563–571PubMedGoogle Scholar
  105. 104.
    Govaert TM, Thijs CT, Masurel N, Sprenger MJ, Dinant GJ, Knottnerus JA (1994) The efficacy of influenza vaccination in elderly individuals. A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. JAMA 272: 1661–1665PubMedGoogle Scholar
  106. 105.
    Vallejo AN (2007) Immune remodeling: Lessons from repertoire alterations during chronological aging and in immune-mediated disease. Trends Mol Med 13: 94–102PubMedGoogle Scholar
  107. 106.
    Gross PA, Hermogenes AW, Sacks HS, Lau J, Levandowski RA (1995) The efficacy of influenza vaccine in elderly persons. A meta-analysis and review of the literature. Ann Intern Med 123: 518–527PubMedGoogle Scholar
  108. 107.
    Jefferson T, Rivetti D, Rivetti A, Rudin M, Di Pietrantonj C, Demicheli V (2005) Efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines in elderly people: A systematic review. Lancet 366: 1165–1174PubMedGoogle Scholar
  109. 108.
    Vu T, Farish S, Jenkins M, Kelly H (2002) A meta-analysis of effectiveness of influenza vaccine in persons aged 65 years and over living in the community. Vaccine 20: 1831–1836PubMedGoogle Scholar
  110. 109.
    Jackson LA, Jackson ML, Nelson JC, Neuzil KM, Weiss NS (2006) Evidence of bias in estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness in seniors. Int J Epidemiol 35: 337–344PubMedGoogle Scholar
  111. 110.
    Jackson LA, Nelson JC, Benson P, Neuzil KM, Reid RJ, Psaty BM, Heckbert SR, Larson EB, Weiss NS (2006) Functional status is a confounder of the association of influenza vaccine and risk of all cause mortality in seniors. Int J Epidemiol 35: 345–352PubMedGoogle Scholar
  112. 111.
    Jefferson T (2006) Influenza vaccination: Policy versus evidence. Br Med J 333: 912–915Google Scholar
  113. 112.
    Bratzler DW, Houck PM, Jiang H, Nsa W, Shook C, Moore L, Red L (2002) Failure to vaccinate Medicare inpatients: A missed opportunity. Arch Intern Med 162: 2349–2356PubMedGoogle Scholar
  114. 113.
    Fedson DS, Wajda A, Nicol JP, Roos LL (1992) Disparity between influenza vaccination rates and risks for influenza-associated hospital discharge and death in Manitoba in 1982–1983. Ann Intern Med 116: 550–555PubMedGoogle Scholar
  115. 114.
    Örtqvist Å, Granath F, Askling J, Hedlund J (2007) Influenza vaccination and mortality: Prospective cohort study of the elderly in a large geographical area. Eur Respir J 30: 414–422PubMedGoogle Scholar
  116. 115.
    Keitel WA, Atmar RL, Cate TR, Petersen NJ, Greenberg SB, Ruben F, Couch RB (2006) Safety of high doses of influenza vaccine and effect on antibody responses in elderly persons. Arch Intern Med 166: 1121–1127PubMedGoogle Scholar
  117. 116.
    Minutello M, Senatore F, Cecchinelli G, Bianchi M, Andreani T, Podda A, Crovari P (1999) Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated subunit influenza virus vaccine combined with MF59 adjuvant emulsion in elderly subjects, immunized for three consecutive influenza seasons. Vaccine 17: 99–104PubMedGoogle Scholar
  118. 117.
    Treanor JJ, Mattison HR, Dumyati G, Yinnon A, Erb S, O’Brien D, Dolin R, Betts RF (1992) Protective efficacy of combined live intranasal and inactivated influenza A virus vaccines in the elderly. Ann Intern Med 117: 625–633PubMedGoogle Scholar
  119. 118.
    Reichert TA, Sugaya N, Fedson DS, Glezen WP, Simonsen L, Tashiro M (2001) The Japanese experience with vaccinating schoolchildren against influenza. N Engl J Med 344: 889–896PubMedGoogle Scholar
  120. 119.
    Glezen WP (2006) Herd protection against influenza. J Clin Virol 37: 237–243PubMedGoogle Scholar
  121. 120.
    Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME (2005) Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children. Am J Epidemiol 161: 303–306PubMedGoogle Scholar
  122. 121.
    Monto AS, Davenport FM, Napier JA, Francis T Jr (1970) Modification of an outbreak of influenza in Tecumseh, Michigan by vaccination of schoolchildren. J Infect Dis 122: 16–25PubMedGoogle Scholar
  123. 122.
    Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr (2006) Public health. Community studies for vaccinating schoolchildren against influenza. Science 311: 615–616PubMedGoogle Scholar
  124. 123.
    Reichert TA, Sugaya N, Fedson DS, Glezen WP, Simonsen L, Tashiro M (2001) Vaccinating Japanese schoolchildren against influenza: Author reply. N Engl J Med 344: 1948Google Scholar
  125. 124.
    Uscher-Pines L, Omer SB, Barnett DJ, Burke TA, Balicer RD (2006) Priority setting for pandemic influenza: An analysis of national preparedness plans. PLoS Med 3: e436PubMedGoogle Scholar
  126. 125.
    Enserink M (2007) Data sharing. New Swiss influenza database to test promises of access. Science 315: 923PubMedGoogle Scholar
  127. 126.
    Earn D, Dushoff J, Levin S (2002) Ecology and evolution of the flu. Trends Ecol Evol 37: 334–340Google Scholar
  128. 127.
    Hope-Simpson RE (1992) The transmission of epidemic influenza. Plenum Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  129. 128.
    Thacker SB (1986) The persistence of influenza A in human populations. Epidemiol Rev 8: 129–142PubMedGoogle Scholar
  130. 129.
    Ferguson NM, Galvani AP, Bush RM (2003) Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution. Nature 422: 428–433PubMedGoogle Scholar
  131. 130.
    Smith DJ, Lapedes AS, de Jong JC, Bestebroer TM, Rimmelzwaan GF, Osterhaus AD, Fouchier RA (2004) Mapping the antigenic and genetic evolution of influenza virus. Science 305: 371–376PubMedGoogle Scholar
  132. 131.
    Plotkin JB, Dushoff J, Levin SA (2002) Hemagglutinin sequence clusters and the antigenic evolution of influenza A virus. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99: 6263–6268PubMedGoogle Scholar
  133. 132.
    Sedyaningsih ER, Isfandari S, Setiawaty V, Rifati L, Harun S, Purba W, Imari S, Giriputra S, Blair PJ, Putnam SD, Uyeki TM, Soendoro T (2007) Epidemiology of cases of H5N1 virus infection in Indonesia, July 2005-June 2006. J Infect Dis 196: 522–527PubMedGoogle Scholar
  134. 133.
    Smallman-Raynor M, Cliff AD (2007) Avian influenza A (H5N1) age distribution in humans. Emerg Infect Dis 13: 510–512PubMedGoogle Scholar
  135. 134.
    Emanuel EJ, Wertheimer A (2006) Public health. Who should get influenza vaccine when not all can? Science 312: 854–855PubMedGoogle Scholar
  136. 135.
    Gostin LO (2006) Medical countermeasures for pandemic influenza: Ethics and the law. JAMA 295: 554–556PubMedGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Birkhäuser Verlag Basel/Switzerland 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lone Simonsen
    • 1
  • Cécile Viboud
    • 2
  • Robert J. Taylor
    • 3
  • Mark A. Miller
    • 2
  1. 1.George Washington University School of Public Health and Health ServicesWashington, DCUSA
  2. 2.Fogarty International CenterNational Institutes of HealthBethesdaUSA
  3. 3.SAGE Analytica, LLCBethesdaUSA

Personalised recommendations