Advertisement

Forecasting Methods and Models

  • Bertrand Chateau
  • Bruno Lapillonne
Part of the Topics in Energy book series (TENE)

Abstract

An exhaustive knowledge of energy demand, of its determinants, of its dynamic aspects, which underhes any prospective analysis, is indeed necessary to decision making in the energy field, whether it concerns a choice between energy production units or the definition of an energy pohcy or of a research and development program; but it is insufficient in so far as the decision requhes clear and rapid answers about the future.

Keywords

Energy Demand MEDEE Approach Space Heating Freight Transport Satellite Model 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

Econometric Model

  1. See bibhography and analysis presented in J. Girod: La demande d’énergie: méthodes et techniques de modéhsation, 185 p. Paris: Editions du CNRS.Google Scholar
  2. Model IIES of the Energy Information Administration (U.S. Department of Energy) Réf.: Logistics Management Institute: The Intemational Energy Evaluation System (IIES), Vol. I and II. Washington: 1978.Google Scholar
  3. Model PIES (Project Independence Evaluation System) of the Energy Information Administration (U.S. Department of Energy).Google Scholar
  4. Ref: Logistics Management Institute. — An Executive Summary of Volume I of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES). Washington: 1977.Google Scholar

Technico-Economic Models

  1. MEDEE 2 and MEDEE 3 models of the lEJE, used by the EEC (DG12) and IIASA Réf.: Lapillonne, B.: MEDEE 2: A model for long-term energy demand evaluation. Laxenburg: HASA. 1978 (RR 78–18).Google Scholar
  2. Chateau, B., Lapillonne, B.: Long-term energy demand simulation (MEDEE 3). Guilford: IPC Press. 1979, pp. 120–128.Google Scholar
  3. Model of the Energy Technology Support Unit (ETSU) of the U.K. Department of EnergyGoogle Scholar
  4. Réf.: Bush, R. P.: A disaggregated model of U.K. energy use for R and D planning purposes, ECE seminar on modelling studies and their conclusions on energy conservation and its impact on the economy. Washington: March 1980 (ECE/SEM 3. RII).Google Scholar
  5. Model of the Economic and Statistic Division of the U.K. Department of EnergyGoogle Scholar
  6. Réf.: Department of Energy: Energy forecasting methodology. London: HMSO. 1978.Google Scholar

Model WISE of the Wisconsin University

  1. Réf.: Foell, W. (ed.): Management of energy environment systems: methods and case studies, 487 p. J.Wiley. 1979.Google Scholar
  2. Model IFSD (Interftiel Substitution Demand) of the Department of Energy, Mines and Resources of CanadaGoogle Scholar
  3. Réf.: Seeto, C. J., Erdman, R. W.: Assessment of potential natural gas penetration using a Canadian interfuel substitution demand model, 678 p. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 201–213.Google Scholar
  4. See also the bibliography of J. Girod (op. cit.).Google Scholar

Macro-Economic or Macro-Sectoral Models of General Equilibrium

  1. Réf.: Manne, A. S.: The use and role of models: long-term energy projections for the U.SA., 678 p. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, p. 64–79.Google Scholar
  2. Réf.: Norgard, J. S., Meyer, N. I.: National energy systems analysis for Denmark up to year 2030. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 172–186.Google Scholar
  3. Models of the “Service de la Programmation de la Pohtique Scientifique (SPPS)” and of the “Bureau du Plan” (Belgium)Google Scholar
  4. Ref: Osterrieth, M.: The Belgian energy models: a general introduction. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 231–236.Google Scholar
  5. Bossier, F., Durvein, D., Gouzee, N.: Estimation of sectoral demand models for the Belgian economy. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 237–253.Google Scholar
  6. Model EPM of the Swedish Industrial Board and of the Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden)Google Scholar
  7. Réf.: Ohman, C.: Studies of optimal energy conservation programs. ECE Seminar on Modelling Studies and tKeir Conclusions on Energy Conservation and its Impact on the Economy. Washington, D.C.: March 1980 (ECE/SEM 3.RI).Google Scholar
  8. Model MSG-E developped by the Central Office of Statistics and the Economic Institute of the Oslo UniversityGoogle Scholar
  9. Réf.: Longva, S., Lorentsen, L., Olsen, O.: Energy in a multisectoral growth model. ECE Seminar on Mode Uing Studies and their Conclusions on Energy Conservation and its Impact on the Economy. Washington: March 1980 (ECE/SEM 3.R3).Google Scholar
  10. Model ENOR developped by the Institut for Atomenergie (Norway) and used by the Ministry of EnergyGoogle Scholar
  11. Réf.: Ek, A., Kjlberg, J., Sira, T.: ENOR, an energy model for Norway. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 263–281.Google Scholar
  12. Réf.: Hudson, E. A., Jorgenson, D. W.: Energy pohcy and economic growth, in Proceedings of the Conference on Energy ModeUing and Forecasting. Springfield: NTIS. 1974, pp. 41–69.Google Scholar
  13. Model “Mini DMS Energie“ of INSEE (France) developped by the French administration Réf.: INSEE. Présentation du modèle Mini DMS Energie. Paris: INSEE. March 1980 (working paper).Google Scholar

Chains of Models

  1. Models of the European Commission (EEC/DG12)Google Scholar
  2. Réf.: Rubin, R., Romberg, E.: Energy models for the European Community. In: Energy Models for the European Community (Strub, A., ed.), 154 p. Guilford: IPC Press, pp. 12–24.Google Scholar
  3. Réf.: Lukachinski, J., et al.: An integrated methodology for assessing energy economy interactions. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 303–315.Google Scholar
  4. Ref: Lukachinski et al., J.: An integrated methodology for assessing energy economy interactions. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 303–315.Google Scholar
  5. Model STER of the University of Strathclyde (Scotland)Google Scholar
  6. Réf.: Hounam, I.: STER. A global energy supply model. Dordrecht: D. Reidel. 1980, pp. 447–455.Google Scholar
  7. 1.
    Chateau, B., Lapillonne, B.: La prévision à long terme de la demande d’énergie: propositions méthodologiques, 225 p. Paris: Editions du CNRS. 1977 (Collection “Energie et Société”.)Google Scholar
  8. 2.
    Chateau, B., Lapillonne, B.: Long-term energy demand forecasting: a new approach. Energy PoUcy 6,140–157 (1978).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 3.
    Julien, P. A., Lamonde, P.,Latouche, P.:La méthode des scénarios. Paris: La Documentation Française. 1975. (Collection Travaux et Recherches de Prospective, no. 59.)Google Scholar
  10. 4.
    Chateau, B., Lapillonne, B.: Long-term energy demand: method of constructing scenario hnked with the MEDEE 3 model. Brussels: CEE-DG XII, January 1979.Google Scholar
  11. 5.
    Chateau, B., Lapillorme, B.: Essai de prévision de la demande d’énergie en France à l’an 2000. Etude de deux scénarios contrastés, 395 p. Grenoble: lEJE. 1977.Google Scholar
  12. 6.
    Landsberg, H.: Energy the next twenty years. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger. 1979.Google Scholar
  13. 7.
    Chateau, B., Lapillonne, B.: Projections à l’horizon 2000 de la demande d’énergie finale de l’Europe des Neuf à l’aide du modèle MEDEE 2,50 p. Grenoble: lEJE. 1978.Google Scholar
  14. 8.
    Chateau, B., et al.: La demande d’énergie finale de la France à l’horizon 2000, 77 p. Grenoble: lEJE. 1979.Google Scholar
  15. 9.
    Lapillonne, B.: Long-term perspectives of the US energy demand. Application of the MEDEE 2 model to the U.S. Energy 5, 231–257 (1980).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Conclusion

  1. 1.
    Meadows, D., et al.: Limits to growth. New York: Universe Books. 1972.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    DATAR: Energie et régions. Paris: La Documentation Française. 1980.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Energy policy project of the Ford foundation — a time to choose. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger. 1974.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Thomas, S.: Modelling U.K. energy demand to 2000. Energy Policy 1980, pp. 17–37.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Leach, G., et al.: A low energy strategy for the United Kingdom. London: Science Reviews. 1979.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Ministère de l’Industrie: Un scénario de croissance sobre en énergie pour la France. Paris: La Documentation Française. 1980.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    CONAES: Alternative energy demand futures to 2010. Washington: National Academy of Sciences. 1979.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Chateau, B., Lapillonne, B.: Long-term energy demand forecasting: a new approach. Energy Policy 5,140–157 (1978).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chateau, B., et al.: La demande d’énergie finale de la France à l’horizon 2000. Grenoble: lEJE.1979. References 275Google Scholar
  10. 9.
    Lovins: Soft energy paths: towards a durable peace., Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger. 1977.Google Scholar
  11. 10.
    Groupe de Bellerive. Project ALTER. Paris: Groupe de Bellerive. 1978.Google Scholar
  12. 11.
    Norgard, J.: The gentle path of conservation. Lyngby: The Technical University, 1979 (DEMO-project). ri 12. Soft Energy Notes. San Francisco: Intemational Project for Soft Energy Paths. I.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Loniuroth, M., Steen, P., Johansson, TB.: Energy in Transition. Berkeley, CaUf.: University of California Press. 1980.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Finon, D.: Choosing an energy forecast. Symposium of the Nobel Foundation “Managing the European Oil Transition”. Stockholm: 1980 (forthcoming in the proceedings.)Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Futuribles,no. 22,pp.3–40,April 1979.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag/Wien 1982

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bertrand Chateau
    • 1
  • Bruno Lapillonne
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut Economique et Juridique de l’EnergieGrenobleFrance

Personalised recommendations