Application of the Surrogate Test to Detect Dynamic Non-Linearity in Ground-Level Ozone Time-Series from Berlin

  • Uwe Schlink
  • Peggy Haase


Recent applications of non-parametric methods to forecast ground level ozone concentrations are based on dynamic non-linearity of the data series. We explain the surrogate method to test this assumption, illustrate the method with non-linear data generated by the Lorenz system, and discuss our test results for Berlin ozone time-series. We find that the null-hypothesis of linearity is clearly rejected for 12- and 24-step-ahead predictions of hourly ozone concentrations.


Prediction Accuracy Ozone Concentration Atmospheric Environment Query Point Lorenz System 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Uwe Schlink
  • Peggy Haase
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Human Exposure Research and EpidemiologyUFZ-Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-HalleLeipzigGermany

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