Abstract
There are two aspects to any discussion of variation amongst the influenza viruses. On the one hand there are the directly observable changes in character that occur in the course of experimental manipulation and on the other there are the differences that are observed in the epidemiology of different outbreaks of virus influenza and the differences which are observed in strains as isolated. It is natural and probably legitimate to infer that the different antigenic types of influenza virus A that were isolated in Britain during the 1936–7 epidemic were variants from a common ancestral stock. But until a great deal more is known of the natural history of influenza it will be difficult to guess how far back that common ancestry might be. The related problems of how the influenza virus persists in interepidemic years and what is responsible for the genesis of a new epidemic, have not yet been solved. It is a possibility but no more than a possibility that as suggested by Andrewes (1942) each new influenza epidemic represents the emergence of a more virulent mutant from the trickle of low grade infection that persists through interepidemic periods. Provided such a more active strain finds a population with low specific immunity, it will find opportunities both for spread and for the appearance of further mutants. An equally conceivable alternative is that epidemics arise by the simultaneous development into overt activity of many strains which have persisted in carriers or otherwise during the interepidemic period. On this view the epidemic is determined only by (a) the existence of a large enough susceptible population, and (b) conditions, social and meteorological, that are apt for its spread. Preliminary mutation would not be required nor would the existence of multiple strains within a single epidemic be valid evidence for the occurrence of contemporary variation.
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Burnet, F.M. (1950). Variation in Influenza Viruses. In: Doerr, R., et al. Handbuch der Virusforschung. Springer, Vienna. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-5688-9_4
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