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Adaptive Market Simulation and Risk Assessment

  • Conference paper
Book cover Learning, Networks and Statistics

Part of the book series: International Centre for Mechanical Sciences ((CISM,volume 382))

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Abstract

Quantitative Reasoning (QR) is a powerful method for simulation and risk assessment. QR and applications are presented, allowing the representation of market and company structures (demand and supply side, prices, values, resources, budgets, ...), dynamics (growth, structural changes, ...), interdependencies (e. g. between market and company related factors). The appoach provides the following features to end users:

  • calculating, simulating without programming,

  • revealing hidden side effects, if-then analysis,

  • checking complex plans and forecasts for consistency,

  • accounting for risks and uncertainties (calculating with interval numbers),

  • incorporating rich and heterogeneous market expertise,

  • providing reliable results,

  • adaptivity related to new information (Bayesian inference),

  • supporting cooperative work.

  • One of the most important examples constructed with QR currently in practice is a planning support tool called GVE. It was built by Daimler-Benz Research for the Mercedes-Benz (MB) marketing department. GVE, the German acronym for the European Commercial Transportation Market, models MB’s business opportunities and risks as determined by the behavior and structural changes of the overall market.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Daimler-Benz AG, Berlin, Germany

    R. A. Müller

Authors
  1. R. A. Müller
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Dip. di Matematica e Informatica, University of Udine, via delle Scienze, 206, I-33100, Udine, Italy

    Giacomo Della Riccia

  2. Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Free Universität of Berlin, Garystr. 21, D-14195, Berlin, Germany

    Hans-Joachim Lenz

  3. University of Magdeburg, Universitaetsplatz 2, D-39106, Magdeburg, Germany

    Rudolf Kruse

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© 1997 Springer-Verlag Wien

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Müller, R.A. (1997). Adaptive Market Simulation and Risk Assessment. In: Della Riccia, G., Lenz, HJ., Kruse, R. (eds) Learning, Networks and Statistics. International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, vol 382. Springer, Vienna. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-2668-4_3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-2668-4_3

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Vienna

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-211-82910-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-7091-2668-4

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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