Adaptive Market Simulation and Risk Assessment

  • R. A. Müller
Conference paper
Part of the International Centre for Mechanical Sciences book series (CISM, volume 382)


Quantitative Reasoning (QR) is a powerful method for simulation and risk assessment. QR and applications are presented, allowing the representation of market and company structures (demand and supply side, prices, values, resources, budgets, ...), dynamics (growth, structural changes, ...), interdependencies (e. g. between market and company related factors). The appoach provides the following features to end users:
  • calculating, simulating without programming,

  • revealing hidden side effects, if-then analysis,

  • checking complex plans and forecasts for consistency,

  • accounting for risks and uncertainties (calculating with interval numbers),

  • incorporating rich and heterogeneous market expertise,

  • providing reliable results,

  • adaptivity related to new information (Bayesian inference),

  • supporting cooperative work.

  • One of the most important examples constructed with QR currently in practice is a planning support tool called GVE. It was built by Daimler-Benz Research for the Mercedes-Benz (MB) marketing department. GVE, the German acronym for the European Commercial Transportation Market, models MB’s business opportunities and risks as determined by the behavior and structural changes of the overall market.


State Space Model Semantical Network Interval Number Object Variable Marketing Department 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • R. A. Müller
    • 1
  1. 1.Daimler-Benz AGBerlinGermany

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