Forecasting Electricity Demand for Agricultural and Services Sector of Pakistan

Abstract

Electricity has brought many things that surely have made many wonders and life would seem so hard without it. Electricity powers our light, heating, electronic appliances such as computers and television, pumping water, and a host of essential services that we take for granted. The demand of electricity in Pakistan is increasing rapidly despite its disrupted supply. Its demand in the Agricultural and Services sectors of the country is dependent on GDP and the past year’s electricity demand. Various models have been developed to forecast the demand. Autotendential models have been used for first approximation; then different energy economic models have been used. Finally, statistically significant MDEE model has been used. Durbin–Watson d- and h-statistic, adjusted R ² values, and F-statistic have been found statistically significant. The Modified Dynamic Energy Economic model used in this study takes Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique into account. This chapter forecasts the electricity demand for the Agricultural and Services sectors, under different scenarios for the period 2007–2030. It results in that the demand will be in the range of 82,000–122,000 GWh in the year 2030.