Empirical analysis of the risk of social exclusion of long-term unemployed young people in Sweden

Abstract

For many years, high levels of employment and low levels of unemployment were the norm for Swedish society. During the period 1975–90, total unemployment ranged between 1.5% and 3.5% of the labour force. However, at the beginning of the 1990s, the labour market situation deteriorated dramatically from the recession and the correspondingly low level of demand for labour. From 1991 to 1994, total unemployment rose from 3% to 8%. For the 16–24-year age group, the highest unemployment rate was recorded in 1993 with 18.4%. However, since the summer of 1998, unemployment has declined. In that year 11.2% of youth in the age group 16–24 years were unemployed. The decline in unemployment in this group continued and in October 1999 the figure was 10.2%. Of these unemployed youth, 7.4% had been unemployed for more than 52 weeks. These figures do not include those in some kind of labour market programme. The National Labour Market Board (AMS) predicts a continued favourable development with increased levels of hiring and reduced unemployment. In one report, AMS reported a significant decline in the level of long-term unemployment during the past year — mainly among youth. Between May 1998 and May 1999, the number of long-term unemployed persons in the age group 18–24 years decreased from 6,044 to 3,301, a reduction of 45% (AMS, 1999). Even if the decline in unemployment after 1998 can be explained mainly by the growth in new job creation, the reduction of the number of long-term unemployed youth can be regarded above all as the result of an active labour market policy focused on a priority group.