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Simulation internationaler Prozesse pp 375–392Cite as

Antizipation durch Simulation

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Part of the book series: Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderheft 3/1971 ((KF,volume 3/1971))

Zusammenfassung

Sozialforschung mit dem Ziel, künftige soziale Ereignisse zu antizipieren, hat in zunehmendem Maße an Popularität gewonnen. Sowohl die Planung einer Stadt als auch die Planung einer Weltgesellschaft sind mit dringlichen Zukunftsproblemen konfrontiert (Mayer 1967, Kahn 1968). Verbal—qualitative Voraussagen (z.B. Marx) und die einst als phantastisch angesehenen Visionen George Orwells (1949) und H.G. Wells (1964) werden inzwischen durch die elektronische Zauberei einer computerisierten Futurologie ergänzt. Technologische Prognosen (Bright 1968), Trendextrapolationen (General Electric Company 1958) und statistische Voraussagen (Boguslaw 1965, Tocher 1963) dienen immer häufiger nicht nur der Antizipation, sondern auch dem Versuch der Steuerung von Entwicklungen.

Paul Smoker, „Social Research for Social Anticipation“, aus: American Behavioral Scientist, 12 (1969) No. 6, 7–13. Die Übersetzung besorgten Annegret Falter, Saarbrücken, und H.D. Rönsch.

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Authors
  1. Paul Smoker
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Lucian Kern Horst-Dieter Rönsch

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© 1972 Westdeutscher Verlag Opladen

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Smoker, P. (1972). Antizipation durch Simulation. In: Kern, L., Rönsch, HD. (eds) Simulation internationaler Prozesse. Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderheft 3/1971, vol 3/1971. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-663-00203-1_14

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-663-00203-1_14

  • Publisher Name: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-663-00053-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-663-00203-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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