Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

100 Experts, 1 Opinion: Predicting Future Electric Vehicle and Powertrain Component Sales

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Book cover CTI SYMPOSIUM 2018

Part of the book series: Proceedings ((PROCEE))

Abstract

As Nils Bohr famously stated, “predictions are difficult, especially about the future”. This is particularly true when the predictions concern the future development of a market as volatile and uncertain as that for electrified vehicles (xEVs). To complicate matters even further, we aimed to not only focus on the market for vehicles themselves but also try to derive forecasts about future sales of the main powertrain components, such as internal combustion engine (ICE), electric motor and the respective associated gearboxes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. AlixPartners (2016) A watershed moment for the automotive industry

    Google Scholar 

  2. Associazione Nazionale Filiera Industria Automobilistica (ANFIA) (2018) European Union – Passenger Car Market

    Google Scholar 

  3. Bloomberg (2017) Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017

    Google Scholar 

  4. Bloomberg (2017) EV market trends and outlook

    Google Scholar 

  5. Bloomberg (2017) Global EV trends and forecast

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bosch (2017) Roadmap to a de-fossilized powertrain

    Google Scholar 

  7. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) (2009) The Comeback of the Electric Car?

    Google Scholar 

  8. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) (2011) Powering Autos to 2020

    Google Scholar 

  9. Brandt M (2017) Elektromobilität nimmt Fahrt auf. heise online

    Google Scholar 

  10. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) (2017) Automotive Statistics – NEVs – passenger cars

    Google Scholar 

  11. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) (2015) Begleitforschung zu Technologien, Perspektiven und Ökobilanzen der Elektromobilität – STROMbegleitung Abschlussbericht

    Google Scholar 

  12. Energy Innovation (2017) The Future of Electric Vehicles in the U.S.

    Google Scholar 

  13. European Alternative Fuel Observatory (EAFO) (2017) The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050

    Google Scholar 

  14. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2011) Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2011

    Google Scholar 

  15. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2012) Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2012

    Google Scholar 

  16. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2013) Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2013

    Google Scholar 

  17. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2014) Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2014

    Google Scholar 

  18. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2015) Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2015

    Google Scholar 

  19. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2016) Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2016

    Google Scholar 

  20. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2017) Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2017

    Google Scholar 

  21. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2015) Economic and Market Outlook

    Google Scholar 

  22. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2016) Economic and Market Outlook

    Google Scholar 

  23. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2017) Economic and Market Outlook

    Google Scholar 

  24. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2014) New Electric Vehicle Registrations in the European Union

    Google Scholar 

  25. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2015) New Electric Vehicle Registrations in the European Union

    Google Scholar 

  26. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2016) New Electric Vehicle Registrations in the European Union

    Google Scholar 

  27. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2017) New Electric Vehicle Registrations in the European Union

    Google Scholar 

  28. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (2017) ACEA Report – Vehicles in use – Europe 2017

    Google Scholar 

  29. e-mobil BW (2015) Strukturstudie Elektromobilität in BW

    Google Scholar 

  30. Gagliardi et al (2017) Multi-Speed Transmissions for Electric Drives. EVS30 Symposium

    Google Scholar 

  31. Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) (2016) Fuel Economy State of the World 2016

    Google Scholar 

  32. Heywood et al (2015) On the Road toward 2050. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Google Scholar 

  33. IHS Markit (2017) Regulation and Electrification in vehicle sales forecast scenarios

    Google Scholar 

  34. International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) (2016) PC vehicles in use

    Google Scholar 

  35. International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) (2017) new PC registrations or sales

    Google Scholar 

  36. International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) (2015) GHG reduction potential

    Google Scholar 

  37. International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) (2012) Pocketbook European Vehicle Market Statistics 2012

    Google Scholar 

  38. International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) (2013) Pocketbook European Vehicle Market Statistics 2013

    Google Scholar 

  39. International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) (2016) Pocketbook European Vehicle Market Statistics 2016

    Google Scholar 

  40. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2010) Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Roadmap

    Google Scholar 

  41. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2010) Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

    Google Scholar 

  42. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2012) Energy Technology Perspectives 2012

    Google Scholar 

  43. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2015) Energy Technology Perspectives 2015

    Google Scholar 

  44. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2012) EV City Casebook 2012

    Google Scholar 

  45. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2013) Global EV Outlook 2013

    Google Scholar 

  46. International Energy Agency (IEA)(2016) Global EV Outlook 2016

    Google Scholar 

  47. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017) Global EV Outlook 2017

    Google Scholar 

  48. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2012) Global transport outlook to 2050

    Google Scholar 

  49. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2009) Technology Roadmap – Electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

    Google Scholar 

  50. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2011) Technology Roadmap – Electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

    Google Scholar 

  51. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017) Tracking Clean Energy Progress

    Google Scholar 

  52. Power JD (2010) Drive Green 2020

    Google Scholar 

  53. LMC Automotive Shanghai (2014) Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Overview

    Google Scholar 

  54. Wyman O (2009) E-Mobility 2025

    Google Scholar 

  55. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (2015) World Oil Outlook 2015

    Google Scholar 

  56. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (2016) World Oil Outlook 2016

    Google Scholar 

  57. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (2017) World Oil Outlook 2017

    Google Scholar 

  58. Öko-Institut e. V. (2011) Aspekte des Systems Elektromobilität

    Google Scholar 

  59. PwC Autofacts (2016) Mit Elektrifizierung und Verbrennungsmotoren auf dem Weg in die Zukunft der Mobilität

    Google Scholar 

  60. PwC Autofacts (2018) Trends transforming the automotive industry

    Google Scholar 

  61. Ricardo plc (2013) Electric Vehicles – Shocked by the lack of Progress?

    Google Scholar 

  62. Ricardo plc (2017) The Future for Low Carbon Vehicles, Hybrid and Electric Vehicles?

    Google Scholar 

  63. Berger R (2011) Automotive landscape 2025

    Google Scholar 

  64. Berger R (2011) E-mobility in Central and Eastern Europe

    Google Scholar 

  65. Berger R (2016) Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+

    Google Scholar 

  66. Schlegel und Partner (2016) Light Vehicles Forecast 2050

    Google Scholar 

  67. Shell (2009) PKW-Szenarien bis 2030

    Google Scholar 

  68. Shell (2014) PKW-Szenarien bis 2040

    Google Scholar 

  69. Statista (2017) Automotive industry

    Google Scholar 

  70. Statista (2017) Chinese passenger car market

    Google Scholar 

  71. Statista (2016) Electric vehicles worldwide

    Google Scholar 

  72. Statista (2017) eMobility Report

    Google Scholar 

  73. Statista (2017) Number of passenger cars in use in China

    Google Scholar 

  74. Statista (2017) Number of passenger cars in use in India

    Google Scholar 

  75. Statista (2017) Number of passenger cars in use in US

    Google Scholar 

  76. Statista (2017) Number of passenger cars in use in worldwide

    Google Scholar 

  77. Statista (2017) Projected electric vehicle sales worldwide by region in 2025

    Google Scholar 

  78. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2017) Annual Energy Outlook 2017

    Google Scholar 

  79. Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA) (2016) Annual Report 2016

    Google Scholar 

  80. Volkswagen (2015) Challenge Electromobility. Barclays Future Powertrain Symposium

    Google Scholar 

  81. Volkswagen (2017) Global economy, Car market trends & regions

    Google Scholar 

  82. Winkel et al (2017) Overcoming the Barriers of Mass EV Introduction. EVS30 Symposium

    Google Scholar 

  83. World Energy Council (WEC) (2011) Global Transport Scenarios 2050

    Google Scholar 

  84. Zhao S (2015) The Projected Pathways and Environmental Impact of China’s Electrified Passenger Vehicles. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Porsche Engineering, Bietigheim-Bissingen, Germany

    Malte Jaensch & Hannes Bantle

Authors
  1. Malte Jaensch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Hannes Bantle
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Malte Jaensch .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

    Rights and permissions

    Reprints and permissions

    Copyright information

    © 2020 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature

    About this paper

    Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

    Cite this paper

    Jaensch, M., Bantle, H. (2020). 100 Experts, 1 Opinion: Predicting Future Electric Vehicle and Powertrain Component Sales. In: CTI SYMPOSIUM 2018. Proceedings. Springer Vieweg, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-58866-6_16

    Download citation

    • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-58866-6_16

    • Published:

    • Publisher Name: Springer Vieweg, Berlin, Heidelberg

    • Print ISBN: 978-3-662-58865-9

    • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-58866-6

    • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

    Publish with us

    Policies and ethics

    Search

    Navigation