Abstract
We investigate the relative performance of a wide array of Value at risk (VaR) and Expected Tail Loss (ETL) risk models in the energy commodities markets. The risk models are tested on a sample of daily spot prices of WTI oil, Brent oil, natural gas, heating oil, coal and uranium yellow cake during the recent global financial crisis. The analysed sample includes periods of backwardation and contango. After obtaining the VaR and ETL estimates we proceed to evaluate the statistical significance of the differences in performance of the analysed risk models. We employ a novel methodology for comparing VaR performance allowing us to rank competing models. Our simulation results show that for a significant number of different VaR models there is no statistical difference in the performance.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Agnolucci, P. (2009). Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models. Energy Economics, 31(2), 316–321.
Aloui, C. (2008). Value-at-risk analysis for energy commodities: Long-range dependencies and fat tails in return innovations. Journal of Energy Markets, 1(1), 31–63.
Aloui, C., & Mabrouk, S. (2010). Value-at-risk estimations of energy commodities via long-memory, asymmetry and fat-tailed GARCH models. Energy Policy, 38(5), 2326–2339.
Blanco, C. & Ihle, G. (1998, August). How Good is Your VaR Using Backtesting to Assess System Performance. Financial Engineering News, pp. 1-2.
Bunn, D., et al. (2013). Analysis and forecasting of electricity price risks with quantile factor models. London Business School Working Paper. http://www.ceem-dauphine.org/assets/dropbox/Derek_BUNN.pdf.
Cheong, C. W. (2009). Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models. Energy Policy, 37(6), 2346–2355.
Christoffersen, P. F. (1998). Evaluating interval forecasts. International Economic Review, 39(4), 841–862.
Costello, A., Asem, E., & Gardner, E. (2008). Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2154–2166.
Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 253–263.
Fan, Y., et al. (2008). Estimating Value at Risk of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach. Energy Economics, 30(6), 3156–3171.
Hansen, P. R. (2005). A test for superior predictive ability. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23(4), 365–380.
Hull, J., & White, A. (1998). Incorporating volatility updating into the historical simulation method for value at risk. Journal of Risk, 1(Fall), 1–19.
Hung, J. C., Lee, M. C., & Liu, H. C. (2008). Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models. Energy Economics, 30(3), 1173–1191.
Kupiec, P. (1995). Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk management models. Journal of Derivatives, 3(2), 73–84.
Lopez, A. J. (1999). Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates - federal reserve bank of New York. Economic Policy Review, 2, 3–17.
Mabrouk, S. (2011). Value-at-risk and expected shortfall estimations based on GARCH-type models: Evidence from energy commodities. Journal of Energy and Development, 35(1), 279–314.
Marimoutou, V., Raggad, B., & Trabelsi, A. (2009). Extreme value theory and value at risk: Application to oil market. Energy Economics, 31(4), 519–530.
McNeil, A. J., & Frey, R. (2000). Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: An extreme value approach. Journal of Empirical Finance, 7, 271–300.
Mohammadi, H., & Su, L. (2010). International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models. Energy Economics, 32(5), 1001–1008.
Wei, Y., Wang, Y., & Huang, D. (2010). Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1477–1484.
White, H. (2000). A reality check for data snooping. Econometrica, 68, 1097–1126.
Žiković, S., & Aktan, B. (2011). Decay factor optimisation in time weighted simulation - evaluating VaR performance. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(4), 1147–1159.
Žiković, S., & Filer, R. K. (2013). Ranking of VaR and ES models: Performance in developed and emerging markets. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 63(4), 327–359.
Žiković, S., & Tomas Žiković, I. (2016). Two sides of the same coin, risk measures in the energy markets. Journal of Energy Markets, 9(2), 51–68.
Žiković, S., Weron, R., & Tomas Žiković, I. (2015). Evaluating the performance of VaR models in energy markets. Stochastic models, statistics and their applications, Springer proceedings in mathematics and statistics (Vol. 19(122), pp. 479–487). Berlin: Springer.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Žiković, S. (2017). Measuring Financial Risk in Energy Markets. In: Härdle, W., Chen, CH., Overbeck, L. (eds) Applied Quantitative Finance. Statistics and Computing. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-54486-0_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-54486-0_15
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-662-54485-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-662-54486-0
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)