Abstract
The international aviation industry expects aviation biofuels to make a substantial contribution to reducing the sector’s CO2 emissions by 2050. This paper provides an analysis of the potential supply of sustainable aviation fuels globally and an insight into the contribution they could and would need to make towards carbon neutral growth of the aviation industry post 2020. It does so by developing scenarios of how much sustainable aviation fuel may be produced globally to 2030, and the resulting CO2 emissions savings. It then estimates the volume of sustainable fuel required to meet the aviation industry’s fuel-related CO2 emissions savings projections for 2050 and discusses the viability of such ambition.
Notes
- 1.
Note that the scenario analysis found that constrained growth in the production of sustainable fuels, and strong demand from the aviation sector lead to a similar result.
- 2.
Operational plants and those under construction allocated a realization factor of 1; projects at the advanced stages of development, which may be indicated by site identification, planning and permits, and/or off-take agreements, are allocated a realization factor of 0.75, projects at earlier stages of development 0.5, and announcements which indicate an aim or interest in developing plants 0.25.
References
E4tech (2013) A harmonized Auto-Fuel biofuel roadmap for the EU to 2030
IEA (2011) Technology Roadmap: Biofuels for Transport
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Appendix Summary of Operational and Planned Plants for the Large Scale Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (2014)
Appendix Summary of Operational and Planned Plants for the Large Scale Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (2014)
Process | Producer | Location | Status | Approximate production capacity for jet fuel [t/a] |
---|---|---|---|---|
HEFA | Neste | Finland | Operational | 38,000 |
38,000 | ||||
Singapore | Operational | 160,000 | ||
Netherlands | Operational | 160,000 | ||
UOP | USA | Operational | 2000 | |
ENI | Italy | Operational | 62,000 | |
Dynamic Fuels | USA | Operational | 47,000 | |
Darling Int. and Valero | USA | Under construction | 90,000 | |
Alt Air | USA | Under construction | 56,000 | |
Emerald Biofuels | USA | 53,000 | ||
94,000 | ||||
FT | Haldor Topsoe | USA | Operational | 350 |
Syntroleum | China | Operational | 1,400 | |
TRI | Canada | Operational | 7,000 | |
USA | 7,000 | |||
13,000 | ||||
UPM | Finland | Under construction | 20,000 | |
France | 37,000 | |||
Red Rock Biofuels | USA | 17,000 | ||
Solena | UK | 50,000 | ||
Italy | 50,000 | |||
Australia | 50,000 | |||
Ireland | 50,000 | |||
India | 150,000 | |||
Turkey | 50,000 | |||
Germany | 50,000 | |||
Sweden | 50,000 | |||
Forest BTL | Finland | 29,000 | ||
ATJ | Terrabon | USA | Operational | 80 |
800 | ||||
Fulcrum Biofuels | Operational | Demonstration | ||
USA | 5,000 | |||
Swedish Biofuels | Europe | 5,000 | ||
LanzaTech | China | 40,000 | ||
DSHC | Virent | USA | Operational | <10 |
Solazymes | Galva, Iowa, US | Operational | 50,000 | |
Amyris | Brazil | Operational | 40,000 | |
40,000 | ||||
LS9 | USA | Operational | 700 | |
16,000 | ||||
Brazil | 120,000 | |||
HDCJ | Allenotech | USA | Operational | Pilot |
KiOR | USA | Operational | 7,800 | |
23,000 | ||||
UOP | Hawaii | Under construction | 30 | |
BTG | Netherlands | 3,500 | ||
Other | Licella | Australia | Operational | Pilot |
8,500 | ||||
Blue Sun | USA | 2,000 | ||
Biochemtex | Europe | 2,000 |
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Bauen, A., Nattrass, L. (2018). Sustainable Aviation Biofuels: Scenarios for Deployment. In: Kaltschmitt, M., Neuling, U. (eds) Biokerosene. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-53065-8_27
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