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The Attribution of Climate Change and Its Uncertainty

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Climate and Environmental Change in China: 1951–2012

Part of the book series: Springer Environmental Science and Engineering ((SPRINGERENVIRON))

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Abstract

Earth’s climate has undergone changes caused by both natural and human factors. The natural factors include solar variability, volcanic eruptions, and interactions within the climate system. The human factors affecting climate are the changes in the composition of the atmosphere (including increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols) caused by industrial and social activities, and changes in land use and coverage. For the past century, the effect of solar variability on climate (climatic forcing) has been 1 % less than that of human activities; the effect of energy within the Earth (geothermal flows) is currently 6 % of that of human factors. On interannual and interdecadal scales, internal climate system factors and their interactions, especially ocean–atmosphere interactions, may be moderately related to global temperature changes; however, it is difficult to determine their contribution to climate change on scales longer than 100 years. Most recent global warming can be essentially attributed to human activities, although uncertainties still exist because of the limitations in observational data, the gaps in our current understanding of the way physical processes affect climate systems, and the various scenarios of future changes.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P. O. Box 9804, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China

    Guangyu Shi & Xuejie Gao

  2. Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidaian, 100084, Beijing, China

    Yong Luo

  3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Haidian, 100081, Beijing, China

    Xiaoye Zhang & Renhe Zhang

  4. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Guirui Yu

  5. Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center of Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Wenjie Dong

Authors
  1. Guangyu Shi
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  2. Yong Luo
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  3. Xiaoye Zhang
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  4. Guirui Yu
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  5. Renhe Zhang
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  6. Xuejie Gao
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  7. Wenjie Dong
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Correspondence to Xiaoye Zhang .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China

    Dahe Qin

  2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China

    Yongjian Ding

  3. The Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China

    Mu Mu

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Shi, G. et al. (2016). The Attribution of Climate Change and Its Uncertainty. In: Qin, D., Ding, Y., Mu, M. (eds) Climate and Environmental Change in China: 1951–2012. Springer Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-48482-1_3

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