Abstract
The brief war over South Ossetia and Abkhazia between Georgia and Russia at the beginning of August 2008 again demonstrated the belligerent nature and explosive international force of local “frozen conflicts”. It dramatically changed the political situation in the Caucasus, triggered renewed ethnic expulsions and for a time considerably impaired relations between Russia and the west, with talk of a new “cold war”. After Russia had during the course of the war restored and recognised the territorial unity of the two de facto states within the borders that had been determined by the former Soviet power during the 1920s, a new front line threatened to emerge between the west and Russia. However, plans to include Georgia in NATO were then shelved after all. Otherwise, western and Russian troops would have been stationed immediately adjacent to each other in this region, too. The new border is particularly precarious, since the west insists on the territorial integrity of Georgia, does not recognise the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and would therefore have to address an illegal presence of Russian troops on NATO territory if it had included Georgia in NATO.
Russia had warned long before the anticipated recognition of the independence of Kosovo by most western states, which was followed by the formal declaration of independence by the Kosovo parliament on 17 February 2008, that it could for its part react with a recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. While the western recognition of the separation of Kosovo violated international law, it said, recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was conformant with it. However, during the months that followed, Russia hesitated before taking this step.
It was only when Georgia attacked South Ossetia on 7 August that Russia took military retaliation, recognised the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and accepted an invitation for a stronger troop presence in both territories after the EU had brokered a ceasefire between Russia and Georgia. Now the following questions arise. Will the west and Russia be prepared in the longer term to mutually recognise the independence of “their” de facto states of Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia? Will both sides be willing to prevent these three acts of recognition from becoming precedents for the other de facto states in Europe and the world? Are both states capable of developing compromises for these other cases? And what are the consequences of the new situation for Armenia, which is now permanently isolated politically?
Keywords
- Security Council
- Territorial Integrity
- Alliance Partner
- Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
- European Neighbourhood Policy
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
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- 1.
Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia, http://rt.com/files/politics/georgia-started-ossetian-war/iiffmcg-volume-ii.pdf (all websites retrieved on 2.5.2010).
- 2.
“Wir kapitulieren nie”, in: Der Spiegel, No. 34, 18.8.2008, pp. 86–87.
- 3.
Wandel durch Bestürzung, in: Der Spiegel, No. 35, 25.8.2008, p. 22.
- 4.
Chronik einer Tragödie. Wer trägt Schuld am Krieg in Georgien?, in: Der Spiegel, No. 35, 25.8.2008, p. 130.
- 5.
“International isolieren”, in: Der Spiegel, No. 36, 1.9.2008, p. 24.
- 6.
Jahn (2008).
- 7.
Security Council extends mandate of Georgia Observer Mission until 15 October, unanimously adopting Resolution 1808 (2008), http://www.un.org/press/en/2008/sc9299.doc.htm.
- 8.
For an account of Russia’s stance, see Zagorski (2009).
- 9.
Wie Medwedew Südossetien und Abchasien für unabhängig erklärte, in: Spiegel Online, 26.8.2008, http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/wortlaut-wie-medwedew-suedossetien-und-abcha sien-fuer-unabhaengig-erklaerte-a-574541.html. See also: http://www.kremlin.ru/sdocs/themes.shtml?day=8&month=09&year=2008&Submit.x=10&Submit.y=8&value_from=&value_to=&date=&stype=&dayRequired=no&day_enable=true#.
- 10.
Report of the Secretary-General on the situation in Abkhazia, Georgia 23 July 2008 S/2008/631, http://www.unomig.org/data/other/080723_sg_report_en.pdf; Report of the Secretary-General on the situation in Abkhazia, Georgia 3 October 2008 S/2008/631, http://www.unomig.org/data/other/081003_sg_report_en.pdf.
- 11.
Wandel durch Bestürzung. in: Der Spiegel, No. 35, 25.8.2008, p. 26.
- 12.
- 13.
This erroneous assessment from 2008 and again still in 2012 was based on the fact that at that time, the internal and inter-state conflict over the Ukraine Association Agreement in November 2013 could still not be foreseen. This conflict escalated for reasons not discussed here, and led to the Russian annexation of Crimea and covert military intervention in East Ukraine during the months that followed.
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Jahn, E. (2015). The Creation of New Fronts Between Russia and the West in the South Caucasus. In: International Politics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-47685-7_8
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