Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard in the Sava River Basin

Abstract

In the past few years, the topic of climate change impact on the water regime of the Sava River basin has been presented in several studies. Average seasonal precipitation and temperature data were calculated and presented, but results are not useful for climate change impacts on floods. The maximum daily precipitation data for each season and temperature data from the meteorological report are taken for the hydrological analysis. Maximum daily precipitations were provided with twenty-year and hundred-year return periods. The hydrological analysis was derived using a hydrological model calibrated for the flood event in 1974 before large flood protection scheme was developed along the Sava River. Flood peak discharges were calculated for autumn season by twenty- and hundred-year return period daily precipitation for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Changes in peak discharge probability functions were developed for the water station along the river for each period. The peak discharges will increase by the end of the twenty-first century for the 100-year return period from 9 % at the mouth up to 55 % at the head part of the river basin.