Skip to main content

Short-Term Speed Prediction on Urban Highways by Ensemble Learning with Feature Subset Selection

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNISA,volume 8505))

Abstract

Accurate traffic speed prediction is essential in the development of intelligent transportation systems. Even though a lot of methods have been proposed for traffic prediction, few works pay attention to the application of ensemble learning and feature subset selection. In this paper, we propose an implementation of ensemble learning using combination of M5 model tree and bagging to tackle traffic speed prediction. A method to select optimal neighboring links as features for our prediction model is also introduced, and different feature subset selection methods are compared. Experimental results show that the proposed ensemble with feature subset selection outperforms both single model and nonparametric model (k-NN).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Park, D., Rilett, L.R.: Forecasting freeway link travel times with a multilayer feedforward neural network. Comput. Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 14, 357–367 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Sun, H., Liu, H.X., Xiao, H., Ran, B.: Short term traffic forecasting using the local linear regression model. UC Irvine Cent. Traffic Simul. Stud. (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Kamarianakis, Y., Prastacos, P.: Forecasting traffic flow conditions in an urban network: comparison of multivariate and univariate approaches. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board. 1857, 74–84 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Zhang, X., Rice, J.A.: Short-term travel time prediction using a time-varying coefficient linear model. Transp. Res. C. 11, 187–210 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Vanajakshi, L., Rilett, L.R.: A comparison of the performance of artificial neural networks and support vector machines for the prediction of traffic speed. In: 2004 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium. pp. 194–199 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Wu, C.-H., Ho, J.-M., Lee, D.T.: Travel-time prediction with support vector regression. IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst. 5, 276–281 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Lee, E.-M., Kim, J.-H., Yoon, W.-S.: Traffic speed prediction under weekday, time, and neighboring links’ speed: back propagation neural network approach. In: Huang, D.-S., Heutte, L., and Loog, M. (eds.) Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications. with Aspects of Theoretical and Methodological Issues SE – 62, pp. 626–635. Springer, Heidelberg (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Wang, J., Shi, Q.: Short-term traffic speed forecasting hybrid model based on Chaos-wavelet analysis-support vector machine theory. Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol. 27, 219–232 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Institute of Transportation Engineers California Border Section Highway Capacity Task Force: A report on the use of traffic simulation models in the San Diego region (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Min, W., Wynter, L.: Real-time road traffic prediction with spatio-temporal correlations. Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol. 19, 606–616 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Vanajakshi, L., Subramanian, S.C., Sivanandan, R.: Travel time prediction under heterogeneous traffic conditions using global positioning system data from buses. IET. Intell. Transp. Syst. 3, 1–9 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Dunne, S., Ghosh, B.: Weather adaptive traffic prediction using neurowavelet models. IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst. 14, 370–379 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Guo, F., Krishnan, R., Polak, J.W.: Short-term traffic prediction under normal and incident conditions using singular spectrum analysis and the k-nearest neighbour method. In: IET and ITS Conference on Road Transport Information and Control (RTIC 2012), pp. 1–6 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Rasyidi, M.A., Kim, J., Ryu, K.R.: Short-Term Prediction of Vehicle Speed in Main City Roads using k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm. In: Proceedings of 2013 Korea Intelligent Information System Society Conference on Intelligent Technology and Data Science., pp 190–195. Korea Intelligent Information System Society, Seoul (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Garcia-Pedrajas, N., Hervas-Martinez, C., Ortiz-Boyer, D.: Cooperative coevolution of artificial neural network ensembles for pattern classification. IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput. 9, 271–302 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Assaad, M., Boné, R., Cardot, H.: A new boosting algorithm for improved time-series forecasting with recurrent neural networks. Inf. Fusion 9, 41–55 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Shigei, N., Miyajima, H., Maeda, M., Ma, L.: Bagging and AdaBoost algorithms for vector quantization. Neurocomputing 73, 106–114 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Yu, L., Lai, K.K., Wang, S.: Multistage RBF neural network ensemble learning for exchange rates forecasting. Neurocomputing 71, 3295–3302 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Chen, L., Chen, C.L.P.: Ensemble learning approach for freeway short-term traffic flow prediction. In: IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering, 2007. SoSE ’07, pp. 1–6 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Flach, P.: Machine Learning: the Art and Science of Algorithms That Make Sense of Data. Cambridge University Press, New York (2012)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  21. Giacomini, R., Granger, C.W.J.: Aggregation of space-time processes. J. Econom. 118, 7–26 (2004)

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  22. Quinlan, J.R.: Learning with continuous classes. In: Proceedings of the Australian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 343–348. World Scientific, Singapore (1992)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Wang, Y., Witten, I.H.: Induction of model trees for predicting continuous classes. Poster papers of the 9th European Conference on Machine Learning. Springer (1997)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Breiman, L.: Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24, 123–140 (1996)

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  25. Schapire, R.E.: A brief introduction to boosting. In: Proceedings of the 16th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence – vol. 2, pp. 1401–1406. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., San Francisco, (1999)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by MSIP (Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning), Korea, under the ITRC (Information Technology Research Center) support program (NIPA-2013-(H0301-13-1012)) supervised by the NIPA (National IT Industry Promotion Agency).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kwang Ryel Ryu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Rasyidi, M.A., Ryu, K.R. (2014). Short-Term Speed Prediction on Urban Highways by Ensemble Learning with Feature Subset Selection. In: Han, WS., Lee, M., Muliantara, A., Sanjaya, N., Thalheim, B., Zhou, S. (eds) Database Systems for Advanced Applications. DASFAA 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 8505. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-43984-5_4

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-43984-5_4

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-662-43983-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-43984-5

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics