Abstract
In their contribution, authors Lemper and Tasto review the evolution of the supply and demand side of the major shipping markets since the beginning of the new millennium. The dry bulk, liquid bulk, and container shipping markets are reviewed in detail and special regard is paid to interesting market developments and limitations of forecasts during the year of the global recession 2009. For this year, the industry forecasts are matched against the effective outcome. Based on the experience of the authors, selected tips are presented on how to analyze shipping markets with the help of statistics and the concepts of inter- and intracompetition of analyzing shipping markets are touched briefly. The contribution ends with a review of the different types of shipping cycles and the lessons learned from the last boom period (2002–2008).
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Notes
- 1.
The latter two are sometimes found excluded from the “major bulks” and grouped with the “minor bulks” instead.
- 2.
Note: this is not entirely true as chemical tankers are well-equipped to carry oil products and will do so to fill the holds on an otherwise underutilized voyage or during repositioning to a different trading area.
- 3.
For selected single-hull-tankers, using a condition assessment could prolong the life-span as far as 2015.
- 4.
Recent research suggests that an index tracking the monthly handling volumes of containers provides some fair amount of insight into the health and state of the world economy and thus forms a “leading indicator”.
- 5.
The Maersk EEE-Series of vessels reportedly will be able to carry 18,000 TEU.
- 6.
See also Lloyd’s List, March 3rd, 2010.
- 7.
Resulting from these developments, both freight and charter rates were quite week late in 2011, after the liner shipping companies had initially in 2011 fought for market shares at the expense of freight rate revenue.
- 8.
- 9.
See also ISL Monthly Container Port Monitor. This regularly reoccurring demand fluctuation can be recognized in Fig. 1.20 of this chapter.
- 10.
In line with the definition of the stages of a cycle, the current trough experienced on all three of the major shipping markets is considered to be the beginning of the next cycle. Ordering activity is declining, scrap volumes are high and while trade volumes are growing, the seed for a recovery is sown.
- 11.
New records were met in the delivery of dry bulkers continuously though and in 2011, the total volume of delivered dry bulk tonnage exceeded the tonnage volume of all merchant vessels delivered in 2007 according to databases from IHS Fairplay.
- 12.
According to the IHS Fairplay orderbook database as of autumn 2008, a total of 468 vessels with a capacity of slightly more than 1.8 M TEU was earmarked to go into service in 2009. In Hindsight, only 265 of those units with a capacity of close to 1.1 M TEU were actually delivered.
References
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Clarksons Research (2012) Shipping Review and Outlook Spring 2012. Clarkson Research Services Limited, London
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Glen D, Martin B (2006) The tanker market: current structure and economic analysis. In: The handbook of maritime economics and business. Informa Law, London
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Lemper, B., Tasto, M. (2015). Demand and Supply of Maritime Transport Services: Analysis of Market Cycles. In: Schinas, O., Grau, C., Johns, M. (eds) HSBA Handbook on Ship Finance. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-43410-9_1
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