Skip to main content

Dynamic Adjustment of Internal Prices to External Price Changes, Federal Republic of Germany, 1958–1979

An Application of Rank-Reduced Distributed-Lag Estimation by Spline Functions

  • Conference paper
Quantitative Studies on Production and Prices
  • 31 Accesses

Abstract

This paper presents a method for estimating lag distributions in a large-scale dynamic model in which import and export prices are treated as the explanatory variables explaining internal prices. The model is applied to monthly data on import prices, export prices, and domestic producer prices of industrial products in the Federal Republic of Germany, covering the 22-year period 1958–1979. The basic data set consists of monthly price indices (multiplied by their weights) for 34 import categories, 32 export categories, and 34 domestic categories of commodities, as indicated in Table 1.

Research was supported by National Science Foundation grant SOC77-27561, and in its initial stages by grants from the Graduate School and the Office of International Programs at the University of Minnesota. I am greatly indebted to George McCandless and Ronald Sands for their expert computational assistance, and to Barbara Craig, Kristine McFeaters, and Marie Fellbaum for their work in preparing the data set. I wish also to express my sincere thanks to Friedrich Marx and Dietrich Gralla of the Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden, for their cooperation in furnishing me with supplementary unpublished data on international and domestic prices used in this study. Finally I wish to thank the many people who have furnished valuable criticisms in numerous seminar presentations, among whom I wish particularly to mention John Helliwell of the University of British Columbia; the useful criticisms and comments of a referee are also gratefully acknowledged.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 44.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Aimon, Sh.: The Distributed Lag between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures. Econometrica 33, 1965, 178–196, .

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bacon, R.W., and J.A. Hausman: The Relationship between Ridge Regression and the Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator of Chipman. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 36, 1974, 115–124.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J.S.: On Least Squares with Insufficient Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 59, 1964, 1078–1111, .

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J.S.: Statistical Problems Arising in the Theory of Aggregation. Applications of Statistics. Ed. by P.R. Krishnaiah. Amsterdam 1977, 123–140.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J.S.: Towards the Construction of an Optimal Aggregative Model of International Trade: West Germany, 1963–1975. Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 6, 1978, 535–554.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J.S.: Efficiency of Least-Squares Estimation of Linear Trend when Residuals are Auto correlated. Econometrica 47, 1979, 115–128, .

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J.S.: Exchange-Rate Flexibility and Resource Allocation. Flexible Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments: Essays in Memory of Egon Sohmen. Ed. by J. S. Chipman and Ch.R. Kindleberger. Amsterdam 1980, 159–209.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J.S., and M. M. Rao: The Treatment of Linear Restrictions in Regression Analysis. Econometrica 32, 1964a, 198–209.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J.S., : Projections, Generalized Inverses, and Quadratic Forms. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 9, 1964b, 1–11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corradi, C., and G. Gambetta: The Estimation of Distributed Lags by Spline Functions. Empirical Economics 1 (1), 1975, 41–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eckart, C., and G. Young: The Approximation of One Matrix by Another of Lower Rank. Psychometrika 1, 1936, 211–218, .

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eckart, C., : A Principal Axis Transformation for Non-Hermitian Matrices. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 45, 1939, 118–121.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, M., and A. F. M. Smith: Ridge-Type Estimators for Regression Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society [B], 36 (2), 1974, 284–291.

    Google Scholar 

  • Golub, G., and W. Kahan: Calculating the Singular Values and Pseudo-Inverse of a Matrix. Journal of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Series B (Numerical Analysis) 2 (2), 1965, 205–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Golub, G.H., and C. Reinsch: Singular Value Decomposition and Least Squares Solutions. Numerische Mathematik 14, 1970, 403–420.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greville, T.N.E.: Data Fitting by Spline Functions. Mathematics Research Center, United States Army, University of Wisconsin, Madison, MRC Technical Summary Report No. 893, 1968, (mimeographed).

    Google Scholar 

  • Greville, T.N.E.: Introduction to Spline Functions. Theory and Application of Spline Functions. Ed. by T.N.E. Greville. New York 1969, 1–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guckes, S.: Zur Neuberechnung der Preisindices auf Basis 1970. Wirtschaft und Statistik, 1973, 691–693. English translation: A New Computation of the Price Indices on Base 1970. Studies on Statistics (28), 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamlen, S.S., and W. A. Hamlen: Harmonic Alternatives to the Almon Polynomial Technique. Journal of Econometrics 7, 1978, 57–66, .

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho, D.S.: An Econometric Study of the Relationship between International and Domestic Prices in the Japanese Economy. Ph.D. thesis, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoerl, A.E., and R.W. Kennard: Ridge Regression: Biased Estimation for Nonorthogonal Problems. Technometrics 12, 1970a, 55–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoerl, A.E., : Ridge Regression: Application to Nonorthogonal Problems. Technometrics 12, 1970b, 69–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kravis, L.B., and R.E. Lipsey: Price Competitiveness in World Trade. New York 1971.

    Google Scholar 

  • Learner, E.E.: Multicollinearity: A Bayesian Interpretation. Review of Economics and Statistics 55, 1973, 371–380.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lucas, R.E., Jr.: Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis. The Econometrics of Price Determination. Proceedings of a Conference held on October 30–31; 1970. Washington, D.C., 1970.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marquardt, D. W.: Generalized Inverses, Ridge Regression, Biased Linear Estimation, and Nonlinear Estimation. Technometrics 12, 1970, 591–612, .

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ouanes, A.: Econometric Study of the International Transmission of Inflation: The Case of West Germany. Ph.D. thesis, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 1979.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rostin, W.: Die Indices der Außenhandelspreise auf Basis 1970. Wirtschaft und Statistik, 1974, 387–394. English translation: Indices of Foreign Trade Prices, Base 1970. Studies on Statistics (30), 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  • Samuelson, P.A.: Prices of Factors and Goods in General Equilibrium. Review of Economic Studies 21, 1953, 1–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shephard, R.W.: Cost and Production Functions. Princeton, N.J., 1953.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiller, R.J.: A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors. Econometrica 41, 1973, 775–788.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sims, Ch. A.: Money, Income and Causality. American Economic Review 62, 1972, 540–552.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sims, Ch.A.: Distributed Lags. Frontiers of Quantitative Economics, Vol. II. Ed. by M. D. Intrilligator and D. A. Kendrick. Amsterdam 1974, 289–332.

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden: Fachserie M, Preise, Löhne, Wirtschaftsrechnungen: Reihe 1, Preise und Preisindizes für Außenhandelsgüter; Reihe 3, Preise und Preisindizes für industrielle Produkte (Erzeugerpreise). Mainz 1958–1976.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fachserie 17, Preise: Reihe 8, Preise und Preisindizes für die Ein- und Ausfuhr; Reihe 2, Preise und Preisindizes für industrielle Produkte (Erzeugerpreise). Mainz 1977–1979.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sims, Ch.A.: Systematisches Warenverzeichnis für die Industriestatistik, Ausgabe 1970. Mainz 1970.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wedin, P.-Ä.: On the Almost Rank Deficient Case of the Least Squares Problem. BIT Nordisk Tidskrift for Informationsbehandling 13 (3), 1973, 344–354.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zellner, A.C.: An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association 57, 1962, 348–368.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1983 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Chipman, J.S. (1983). Dynamic Adjustment of Internal Prices to External Price Changes, Federal Republic of Germany, 1958–1979. In: Eichhorn, W., Henn, R., Neumann, K., Shephard, R.W. (eds) Quantitative Studies on Production and Prices. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-41526-9_15

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-41526-9_15

  • Publisher Name: Physica, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-7908-0275-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-41526-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics