Application of stochastic epidemic modelling in the public health control of HIV / AIDS
The principal motivation for this investigation is not the undertaking of a scientific enquiry per se, but a response to the need of public health administrators to answer with some degree of urgency a number of practical questions affecting planning and intervention in the control of HIV and AIDS, and to have moreover some indication of the inevitable uncertainty in anwers based on restricted data collected over limited periods oftime. Satisfactory scientific studies will require a great many carefully selected observations spread over several years, but we cannot afford to merely wait for ideal data sets to be established. Health administrators are having to make decisions right now — it follows that practical compromises are essential if these decisions are to be more rational rather than less, and are increasingly geared to forward planning in the face of uncertainty.
KeywordsDeterministic Model Stochastic Simulation Demographic Effect Negative Exponential Distribution Imbed Markov Chain
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