Managing Technological Risk

Abstract

When wooing John Sculley to Apple from Pepsico, Steve Jobs asked, “John, do you want to change the world, or do you want to peddle soda water for the rest of your life?” Jobs did not ask whether Sculley wanted to forecast the future, but whether he wanted to change it. This is how today’s “entreprenerds” deal with the risky future: First, identify a new, basic technology that will spawn whole new classes of products. Second, know more about that technology than anyone else. Third, inflict the technology on the world in the form of an audaciously marketed product. Fourth, watch for follow-on, spin-off, and tie-in opportunities — and take them.

The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.

Jawaharlal Nehru

If it weren’t for my bad luck, I’d have no luck at all.

Old blues lyric