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Probabilities

  • Tibor Müller
  • Harmund Müller

Abstract

The dependability of a model is determined by its validity, the way it is well-founded. The quality of the foundations of a model becomes obvious in certain degrees depending on the evidence available to the modeller. There may be observations in favour of a model, thus supporting and confirming it, and there may be observations not in concordance with a model. The latter will certainly reduce the belief in the dependability of a model and cast doubt on it; in the worst case its futility will be proved and it will be refuted. This information will help us to induce a belief in the dependability of a model, which can be measured in degrees. This does not mean that we trust to a model blindly, but that our evaluation is founded on evidence and induced from experience gained from experiments. It is thus a degree of rational belief and may be quantified in terms of probability.

Keywords

Prior Probability Bayesian Inference Maximum Likelihood Method Initial Probability Rational Belief 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tibor Müller
    • 1
  • Harmund Müller
    • 2
  1. 1.BruxellesBelgium
  2. 2.Reinheim-ZeilhardGermany

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