Abstract
The earthquake “prediction problem” is examined from the “standpoint” of decision theory. The “problem” stated in these terms has an exact formulation as optimization of the goal function γ. The two types of γ discussed are at the research phase and application phase of prediction incorporating economics. In both cases, we find the structure of prediction strategies that optimize γ. The error diagram and specific techniques used in prediction practice are discussed.
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© 2003 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Molchan, G.M. (2003). Earthquake Prediction Strategies: A Theoretical Analysis. In: Keilis-Borok, V.I., Soloviev, A.A. (eds) Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Springer Series in Synergetics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-05298-3_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-05298-3_5
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-07806-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-662-05298-3
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