Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Global Climate pp 153–185Cite as

Understanding Future Climate Change Using Paleorecords

  • Chapter

Abstract

Warming has been measured over most parts of the globe during the late 20th century. The instrumental data that record this warming provide only a limited perspective on either its nature or its cause. Because instrumental measurements cover mainly the period of industrialization, for example, they offer little information with which to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic effects. Furthermore, the instrumental record does not capture the spatial and temporal range of decadal to centennial scale variability which models and paleodata suggest is inherent to the climate system. An understanding of these decadal to centennial scale modes of variability must be an inherent component of any attempt at climate prediction. Furthermore, the paleorecord provides numerous examples of abrupt shifts in climate, and the ecosystem responses to these. Because such changes are absent in the instrumental period, societal infrastructure has largely been built without consideration of such possibilities, leaving many societies highly vulnerable to the types of climate changes which we know have occurred in the past.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Alley, R. B. (2000). “The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 213–226.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alley, R. B., D. A. Meese, C. A. Shuman, A. J. Gow, K. C. Taylor, P. M. Grootes, J. W. C. White, M. Ram, E. D. Waddington, P. A. Mayewski and G. A. Zielinski (1993). “Abrupt in- crease in Greenland snow accumulation at the end of the Younger Dryas event.” Nature 362: 527–529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alverson, K., R. Bradley, K. Briffa, J. Cole, M. Hughes, I. Larocque, T. Pedersen, L. Thompson and S. Tudhope (2001). “A Global Paleoclimate Observing System.” Science 293(5527): 47–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alverson, K., R. Bradley, K. R. Briffa, J. Cole, M. K. Hughes, I. Larocque, T. Pedersen, L. G. Thompson and A. W. Tudhope (2001). “Disappearing Evidence: the Need for a Global Paleoclimate Observing System.” Global Change Newsletter 46: 2–6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alverson, K., R. Bradley and T. Pedersen (2001). Environmental Variability and Climate Change. Stockholm, IGBP Secretariat.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alverson, K. and M. Eakin (2001). “Making sure that the world’s paleodata do not get buried.” Nature 412: 269.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alverson, K. and F. Oldfield (2000). “PAGES — Past Global Changes and their Significance for the future: an Introduction.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 3–7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alverson, K., F. Oldfield and R. Bradley, Eds. (2000). Past Global Changes and Their Significance for the Future. Quaternary Science Reviews, Elsevier Science Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Amman, B. and F. Oldfield, Eds. (2000). Biotic Respnses to Rapid Climatic Chnages Around the Younger Dryas. Paleo Geography Climatology Ecology, Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, J., D. Belknap, B. Douglas, D. Fitzgerald, C. Fletcher, R. Holman, S. Leatherman, B. Richmond, S. Riggs, A. Rodriguez, S. Tebbens, T. Tornqvist and O. v. d. Plassche (in press). “Forecasting Coastal Change.” Eos Trans. AGU.

    Google Scholar 

  • Archer, D., A. Winguth, D. Lea and N. Mahowald (2000). “What caused the glacial/interglacial atmospheric pCO2 cycles?” Reviews of Geophysics 38,2: 159–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bacastow, R. B. (1996). “The effect of temperature change of the warm surface waters of the oceans on atmospheric CO2.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10(2): 319–333.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briffa, K. R. (2000). “Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 87–105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briffa, K. R., F. H. Schweingruber, P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, S. G. Shiyatov and E. A. Vaganov (1998). “Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes.” Nature 391: 678–682.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colinvaux, P. A., P. E. D. Oliveira and M. B. Bush (2000). “Amazonian and neotropical plant communities on glacial time-scales: The failure of the aridity and refuge hypotheses.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 141–169.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crowley, T. J. (2000). “Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years.” Science 289: 270–277.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cuffey, K. M. and F. Vimeaux (2001). “Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostock ice core after deuterium-excess correction.” Nature 412: 523–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Arrigo, R. (1998). “The Southeaset Asian Dendro Workshop 1998.” PAGES News 6(2): 14–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elderfield, H. and R. E. M. Rickaby (2000). “Oceanic Cd/P ratio and nutrient utilization in the glacial Southern Ocean.” Nature 405: 305–310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falkowski, P., R. J. Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, S. Linder, F. T. Mackenzie, B. M. III, T. Pedersen, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Smetacek and W. Steffen (2000). “The global carbon cycle: a test of our knowledge of earth as a system.” Science 290: 291–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Francois, R., M. Altabet, E.-F. Yu, D. M. Sigman, M. P. Bacon, M. Frankl, G. Bohrmann, G. Bareille and L. D. Labeyrie (1997). “Contribution of Southern Ocean surface-water stratification to low atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the last glacial period.” Nature 389: 929–935.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fyfe, J. C. and G. M. Flato (1999). “Enhanced Climate Change and its Detection over the Rocky Mountains.” Journal of Climate 12: 230–243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gagan, M. K., L. K. Ayliffe, J. W. Beck, J. E. Cole, E. R. M. Druffel, R. B. Dunbar and D. P. Schrag (2000). “New views of tropical paleoclimates from corals.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 45–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gasse, F. (2000). “Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 189–211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ginot, P., C. Kull, M. Schwikowski, U. Schotterer and H. W. Gäggeler (in press). “Effects of post-depositional processes on snow composition of a subtropical glacier (Cerro Tapado, Chilean Andes).” Journal of Geophysical Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Henderson, K. A., L. G. Thompson and P. Lin (1999). “Recording of El Niño in ice core d18O records from Nevado Huascaran, Peru.” Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 31053–31065.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hisschemöller, M., R. Tol and P. Vellinga (2001). “The relevance of participatory approaches in integrated environmental assessment.” Integrated Assessment 2: 57–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (1999). “Climate Change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs.” Marine and Fresh Water Research 50(8): 839–866.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hormes, A., B. U. Müller and C. Schlüchter (2001). “The Alps with little ice: evidence for eight Holocene phases of reduced glacier extent in the Central Swiss Alps.” The Holocene 11(3): 255–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. G. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. v. d. Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson, Eds. (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of WOrking Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001, Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, C. A. M. Blumenthal and B. Rajagopalan (1998). “Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991.” Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 18,567–18,589.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keir, R. S. (1993). “Cold Surface Ocean Ventilation and Its Effect on Atmospheric CO2.” Journal of Geophysical Research 98(C1): 849–856.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Körner, C. (2001). Warming Treelines and the Alpine. Climate Change at High Elevation Sites: Emerging Impacts: Highest 2, Davos, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kull, C. and M. Grosjean (2000). “Late Pleistocene climate conditions in the north Chilean Andes drawn from a climate-glacier model.” Journal of Claciology 46(155): 622–632.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kull, C., M. Grosjean and H. Veit (in press). “Modeling modern and late Pleistocene glacioclimatological conditions in the north Chilean Andes (20 °S).” Climatic Chante.

    Google Scholar 

  • LeGrand, P. and K. Alverson (in press). “Variations in Atmospheric CO2 During Glacial Cycles from an Inverse Ocean Modeling Perspective.” Paleoceanography.

    Google Scholar 

  • LeGrand, P. and C. Wunsch (1995). “Constraints from paleotracer data on the North Atlantic circulation during the last glacial maximum.” Paleoceanography 10(6): 1011–1045.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liniger, H. P., R. Weingartner, M. Grosjean, C. Kull, L. MacMillan, B. Messerli, A. Bisaz and U. Lutz (1998). Mountains of the World: Water Towers for the 21st Century, University of Bern, Switzerland: 32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley and M. K. Hughes (1999). “Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations.” Geophysical Research Letters 26(6): 759–762.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meybeck, M., P. Green and C. Vörösmarty (2001). “A New Typology for Mountains and Other Relief Classes.” Mountain Research and Development 21(1): 34–45.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore, G. W. K., K. Alverson and G. Holdsworth (Submitted). “Variability in the Climate of the Pacific Ocean and North America as Expressed in an Ice Core from Mount Logan.” Annals of Glaciology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore, G. W. K., G. Holdsworth and K. Alverson (2001). “Extra-Tropical Response to ENSO 1736–1985 As Expressed In An Ice Core From The Saint Elias Mountain Range In Northwestern North America.” Geophysical Research Letters 28(18): 3457–3461.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pedersen, T. F. and P. Bertrand (2000). “Influences of oceanic rheostats and amplifiers on atmospheric CO2 content during the Late Quaternary.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 273–283.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pfaff, A. and D. Peteet (2001). “Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making.” Eos Trans. AGU 82(20): 222–225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Porter, S. C., A. Singhvi, Z. An and Z. Lai (2001). “Luminescence Age and Palaeoenvironmental Implications of a Late Pleistocene Ground Wedbe on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau.” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 12: 203–210.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarmiento, J. L. and R. Toggweiler (1984). “A new model for the role of the oceans in determining atmospheric pCO2.” Nature 308: 621–624.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiyatov, S., P. Moiseev and O. Tchekhlov (2001). The impact of climate changes on foresttundra vegetation in the Ural Mountain highlands during the 20th century. Climate Change at High Elevation Sites: Emerging Impacts: Highest 2, Davos, Switzerland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Siegenthaler, U. and T. Wenk (1984). “Rapid atmospheric CO2 variations and ocean circulation.” Nature 308: 624–626.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sigman, D. M. and E. A. Boyle (2000). “Glacial/interglacial variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide.” Nature 407: 859–869.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephens, B. B. and R. F. Keeling (2000). “The influence of Antarctic sea ice on glacialinterglacial CO2 variations.” Nature 404: 171–174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stott, P. A., S. F. B. Tett, G. S. Jones, M. R. Allen, J. F. B. Mitchell and G. J. Jenkins (2000). “External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings.” Science 290: 213 3–213 7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stute, M., M. Forster, H. Frischkorn and A. Serejo (1995). “Cooling of tropical Brazil (5°C) during the last glacial maximum.” Science 269: 379–383.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, L. G. (2000). “Ice core evidence for climate change in the Tropics: implications for our future.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 19–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, L. G. (2001). Stable Isotopes and their Relationship to Temperature as Recorded in Low-Latitude Ice Cores. Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change. L. C. Gerhard, W. E. Harrison and B. M. Hanson: 99–119.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, L. G., Davies, M.E., Mosley-Thompson, E., Sowers, T.A., Henderson, K.A., Zagoronov, V.S., Lin, P.-N., Mikhalenko, V.N., Campen, R.K., Bolzan, J.F., Cole-Dai, J., Francou, B. (1998). “A 25,000-year tropical climate history from Bolivian ice cores.” Science 282: 1858–1864.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, L. G., T. Yao, E. Mosley-Thompson, M. E. Davis, K. A. Henderson and P.-N. Lin (2000). “A High-Resolution Millennial Record of the South Asian Monsoon from Himalayan Ice Cores.” Science 289(5486): 1916–1919.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toggweiler, J. R. (1999). “Variation of atmospheric CO2 by ventilation of the ocean’s deepest water.” Paleoceanography 14(5): 571–588.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tudhope, A. W., C. P. Chilcott, M. T. McCulloch, E. R. Cook, J. Chappell, R. M. Ellam, D. W. Lea, J. M. Lough and G. B. Shimmield (2001). “Variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Through a Glacial-Interglacial Cycle.” Science 291(5508): 1511–1517.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Urban, F. E., J. E. Cole and J. T. Overpeck (2000). “Influence of mean climate change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record.” Nature 407: 989–993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vaganov, E. A., M. K. Hughes, A. V. Kidyanov, F. H. Schweingruber and P. P. Silkin (1999). “Influence of snowfall and melt timing on tree growth in subarctic Eurasia.” Nature 400: 149–151.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vandenberghe, J. and J. Lowe (2001). Climatic and environmental variability of Mid-Latitude Europe during the last interglacial-glacial cycle. Past Climate Variaiblity Through Europe and Africa, Aix-en-Provence, PAGES.

    Google Scholar 

  • Villaba, R., R. D. D’Arrigo, E. R. Cook, G. C. Jacoby and G. Wiles (2001). Decadal-scale climatic variability along the extra-tropical western coast of the Americas: Evidence from treering records. Interhemispheric Climate Linkages. V. Markgraf, Academic Press: 155–172.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wunsch, C. (1996). The Ocean Circulation Inverse Problem, Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wunsch, C. (1999). “The Interpretation of Short Climate Records, with Comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Soclety 80(2): 245–255.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. PAGES International Project Office, Bärenplatz 2, Bern, CH-3011, Switzerland

    Keith Alverson & Christoph Kull

Authors
  1. Keith Alverson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christoph Kull
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Climate ResearchGroup, University of Barcelona, Baldiri Reixac, 4-6, Torre D, 08032, Barcelona, Spain

    Xavier Rodó

  2. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia-CSIC, Avda. Montanana 1005, 50059, Zaragoza, Spain

    Francisco A. Comín

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2003 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Alverson, K., Kull, C. (2003). Understanding Future Climate Change Using Paleorecords. In: Rodó, X., Comín, F.A. (eds) Global Climate. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-05285-3_9

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-05285-3_9

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-07856-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-05285-3

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation