Atmospheric Modelling and Prediction
This chapter is intended to provide the reader with an introduction to the development and application of models of the Earth’s atmospheric flow. It describes a range of past and present methods for solving the equations governing the behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere. These equations can be cast in predictive form and their solution therefore provides forecasts of the future state of the atmosphere. The governing equations are mathematical expressions of the various conservation laws governing the atmosphere, as a fluid in motion. The equations also allow for the effects of a wide range of forcing mechanisms. Here we mention but a few, such as the differential heating of the sun’s radiation between the equator and the poles, dissipation of momentum, heat and moisture at the Earth’s surface and boundary layer, turbulence in the free atmosphere, the drag on the atmosphere from steep, high or rough terrain, and the profound influence of Earth’s rotation. The complexity of the interaction between the Earth’s atmosphere and the other components of the Earth’s environmental system are illustrated schematically in Fig. 3.1, which shows the coupled atmosphere-ocean-landsurface model, which is the focus of much of this book. Each of the components represented in Fig. 3.1 is a model in its own right and interacts with the atmospheric model in two main ways.
KeywordsTropical Cyclone Atmospheric Modelling Ensemble Member Numerical Weather Prediction Numerical Weather Prediction Model
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