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Discussion

  • Ulrich Grosch
Conference paper

Abstract

In their paper, Börsch-Supan, Ludwig and Winter focus on ageing-induced capital flows, choosing Germany as an example. They derive their capital-flow forecasts using a multi-country overlapping generations growth model, and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions. Moreover, they distinguish three different capital-mobility scenarios (closed economy, liberalized capital flows among EU countries, or liberalized capital flows among OECD countries) and two different pension systems (Germany’s current pay-as-you-go pension system and a one-third transition to a funded system). The strength of this approach is — in my opinion — the very detailed modelling of the future development of the age structure. Return differentials caused by differences in the ageing process between countries are therefore the driving forces of the capital flows in this model.

Keywords

Current Account Pension System Capital Flow Foreign Asset Current Account Deficit 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ulrich Grosch

There are no affiliations available

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