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Long-Term Morphological Prediction

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River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics

Abstract

Long-term morphological changes of alluvial rivers, estuaries, coasts and shelf seas are often difficult to predict, not only because part of the external forcing (e.g. the weather) is only predictable in a statistical sense, but also because the non-linearity of the morphodynamic processes may give rise to inherent predictability limits, which are associated with multiple equilibrium states, or even with deterministic chaos. The statistical properties of these systems are only predictable at scales much larger than those of the underlying processes or forcing factors. Hence there is a need for predictive models that are defined at the scale level of interest, rather than at the much smaller scale of the underlying processes. This paper discusses possibilities to formulate and utilise such aggregated models.

This emphasizes the importance of behaviour analyses of idealised models as a method of investigation, in addition to (1) field measurements and monitoring, (2) laboratory experiments and (3) numerical modelling. The paper gives an overview of recent work on such behaviour analyses and discusses the possibilities of further integration with the other three methods.

A third complication concerns parameter setting, calibration and sensitivity analysis. In general, a model may lose its predictive capability (other than straightforward extrapolation from the past) if too much of its essential dynamics is parameterised and calibrated against data from the past. In other words: a model can be over-calibrated and thus be deprived of its predictive capability. The awareness of this possibility is virtually non-existent in morphological modelling, let alone the notion of optimal calibration. In this paper, we discuss some examples of sensitivity analysis and over-calibration of morphological models.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fac. Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, POB 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, NL

    Huib De Vriend

  2. Dept. Civil Engineering & Management, University of Twente, POB 217, 7500 AE, Enschede, NL

    Huib De Vriend

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  1. Huib De Vriend
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Genova, Via Montallegro 1, 16145, Genova, Italy

    Giovanni Seminara  & Paolo Blondeaux  & 

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De Vriend, H. (2001). Long-Term Morphological Prediction. In: Seminara, G., Blondeaux, P. (eds) River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04571-8_8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04571-8_8

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-07530-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-04571-8

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