Modelling Climate Changes for Croatia

Abstract

During the 20^th century an increasing trend in mean annual temperatures is present all over Croatia. It amounts to about 0.1 to 0.5°C in the continental lowland, and 0.3°C in the northern Adriatic. The hottest years of the period appeared during the last decade. The amount of precipitation experiences decreasing tendencies up to 13% in the lowland and 19% (statistically significant) along the northern part of the eastern Adriatic coast since the beginning of the century.

Climate change scenarios deduced for the broader region of the Mediterranean include the whole area of Croatia. These scenarios were constructed by combining the output from four three-dimensional models of the Earth’s atmosphere. Downscaling techniques were performed to generate scenarios with a higher spatial distribution. The scenarios indicate two possible regional climate change responses depending on global climate changes. Both cases show increases in the annual and seasonal values of mean temperatures and precipitation totals. The highest temperature and precipitation changes occur in Croatia by implementing the IS92e scenario. Annual mean temperature would increase between 0.8 and 1.1°C by 2030, from 1.6 and 2.1°C by 2050, and between 4.2 and 5.6°C by the end of century. On the seasonal basis the greatest increase is expected for summer in lowland areas and the Istra Peninsula. Annual precipitations totals would increase between 2.1 and 3.5% by 2030, from 3.9 and 6.5% by 2050 and between 10.5 and 17.5% by the end of century. The most pronounced increases would be experienced in the Istra Peninsula and the lowland. Seasonally, the biggest increase would occur in summer with the precipitation changes between 3.5 and 28% over all the country.