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Uncertainties in Assessing the Impacts of Regional Climate Change

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Book cover Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change

Abstract

Studies of the impacts of climate change are subject to numerous uncertainties, which propagate through an assessment. There are uncertainties in projections of the major socio-economic driving factors of environmental change, in scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions into the atmosphere, in estimates of resulting atmospheric composition and related air and water pollution, in the calculated radiative forcing of the climate, in simulated climate responses to forcing, in estimated sea-level rise due to climate warming and in the evaluation of impacts. Many of these uncertainties are quantifiable, though others are inherently indeterminate, including abrupt, non-linear “surprise” events. Unfortunately, most impact studies conducted to date have failed adequately to represent these sources of uncertainty. This naturally compromises the usefulness of such studies in informing policy. After reviewing the major types of uncertainty, it is suggested that intensified research is necessary to provide improved quantitative measures of uncertainty and that guidance is required by climate change scientists on appropriate techniques for estimating uncertainties and on effective methods of presenting the results.

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    Timothy R. Carter

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    Manola Brunet India  & Diego López Bonillo  & 

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Carter, T.R. (2001). Uncertainties in Assessing the Impacts of Regional Climate Change. In: India, M.B., Bonillo, D.L. (eds) Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_38

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