Advertisement

First Order Markov Chain Model and Rainfall Sequences in several Stations of Spain

  • S. Conejo
  • A. Morata
  • F. Valero
Chapter

Abstract

Iberian rainfall variability is studied by means of the rain sequences generated by a first order Markov chain model, during 1940–1998. The precipitation distribution shows great differences in terms of the Hurrell index with the largest sequences at the Atlantic zone and the shortest sequences at the Mediterranean area. The probability of n consecutive days and their sequences is checked by the χ2 test against observational data. In another model we could note low persistence in actual precipitation. Variations in the Hurrell index sign differences allow us to make improvements suggest to the model. The first order Markov chain model would allows us regionalise the precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula.

Keywords

Markov Chain Model Synoptic Eddy Atlantic Area Atlantic Storm Track Atlantic Zone 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Coe R. and R.D. Stern, 1982: Fitting Models to Daily Rainfall Data, J. Appl. Meteor. 21, 1024–1031.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Conesa, C. and J. Martín, 1993: Analyse par la chaine de Markov de la sécheresse dans le sud-est de l’Espagne. Sécheresse 2, 123–129.Google Scholar
  3. Hurrell, J.W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precopitation. Science 269, 676–679.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Martín, J., 1983: La aceptación del modelo estocástico de La cadena de Markov homogéneo a de tiempo discreto y de dos estados en los cálculos de la probabilidad de la precipitación diaria. VIII Coloquio de Geógrafos Españoles. Comunicaciones, 24–31, AGE.Google Scholar
  5. Martín, J., 1987: Caracteristiques climatologiques de la precipitació en la franja costera mediterrania de la Península Ibérica. Barcelona, ICC.Google Scholar
  6. Mateo, P., 1965: Persistencia de los días de precipitación y sin precipitación en Gijón (costa Cantábrica de España). Publicaciones Serie A, 40. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Ministerio del Aire. Madrid.Google Scholar
  7. Rogers, J.C., 1990: Patterns of low-frequency monthly sea-level pressure variability (1899–1986) and associated wave cyclone frequencies. J. Climate 3, 1364–1379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Valero, F., F. J. Doblas, and J.F. González, 1996: On long-term evolution of seasonal precipitation in southwestern Europe. Annales Geophysicae 14, 976–985.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • S. Conejo
    • 1
  • A. Morata
    • 1
  • F. Valero
    • 1
  1. 1.Dpto.Astrofísica y CC. de la Atmósfera. Facultad de CC. FísicasUniversidad Complutense de MadridMadridSpain

Personalised recommendations