Abstract
Until the mid nineteenth century fertility levels had remained broadly constant for many centuries. Short term influences such as favourable or poor economic conditions led to fluctuations but there were no consistent increases or decreases in fertility until the now-developed regions of Europe and North America entered a fertility transition which saw fertility approach replacement level childbearing of around two children per woman by the early twentieth century. This transition took many years — in many countries around 40 or 50 — and was not begun in the countries of the developing world until the 1960s. Since that time there have been examples of major declines in childbearing in every major region of the world with the exception of the countries in Africa south of the Sahara. In sub-Saharan Africa evidence of the beginnings of a decline has recently been seen in Botswana, Zimbabwe and Kenya.
The authors would like to thank Karen Oppenheim Mason for valuable comments.
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Ahlburg, D.A., Diamond, I. (1996). Evaluating the Impact of Family Planning Programmes. In: Ahlburg, D.A., Kelley, A.C., Mason, K.O. (eds) The Impact of Population Growth on Well-being in Developing Countries. Population Economics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03239-8_9
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