Summary
An accuracy analysis of several long-term forecasts of the US economy was performed from the structural point of view. More disaggrated industrial levels usually provide less correct forecasts of structural changes. The main reason for this is the lack of explicit accounting for technological progress in models used for prediction. Thus, the problems of structural change forecasting plague the technological as well as the industrial level.
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© 1989 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Tchijov, I. (1989). Economic Structural Changes: The Problems of Forecasting. In: Krelle, W. (eds) The Future of the World Economy. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02586-4_29
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02586-4_29
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-662-02588-8
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