US Economic Growth in Retrospect and Prospect

  • Bert G. Hickman

Summary

This chapter presents another view of the major factors affecting US economic growth both historically and prospectively. The Hickman—Coen (HC) annual growth model is used to investigate the determinants of economic growth and productivity change during 1956–1982 and to forecast the principal macroeconomic variables for 1985–2000. Our approach stresses the interaction of aggregate supply and demand in the growth process instead of concentrating exclusively on reduced-form analysis of the production function. It leads to a different view of the driving forces of economic growth, as summarized in the concluding section.

Keywords

Income OECD 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Coen, R.M. and Hickman, B.G. (1980a), A Disaggregated Model of Labor Supply and Unemployment, 1951–2000, Working Paper WP-80–15. (Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis).Google Scholar
  2. Coen, R.M. and Hickman, B.G. (1980b), The Natural Growth Path of Potential Output, Working Paper WP-80–132. (Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis).Google Scholar
  3. Coen, R.M. and Hickman, B.G. (1980c), Testing Factor Demands for Monetary Influences and Technical Change in the Postwar Economy, Research Memorandum No. 241. ( Palo Alto, CA: Center for Research in Economic Growth, Stanford University ).Google Scholar
  4. Coen, R.M. and Hickman, B.G. (1983), Energy Shocks and Macroeconomic Activity: Simulation Results from the Hickman-Coen Model, EMF 7. 11. ( Palo Alto, CA: Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University ).Google Scholar
  5. Coen, R.M. and Hickman, B.G. (1984), Tax Policy, Federal Deficits, and US Growth in the 1980s, National Tax Journal, 3, pp. 89–104.Google Scholar
  6. Coen, R.M. and Hickman, B.G. (1985), Social Security and Macroeconomic Activity in 1985–2010: A Forecast with the Hickman-Coen Annual Growth Model, CEPR Publication No. 50. ( Palo Alto, CA: Center for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University ).Google Scholar
  7. Easterlin, R.A. (1978), What Will 1984 Be Like? Socioeconomic Implications of Recent Twists in Age Structure, Demography 15(4), pp. 397–432.Google Scholar
  8. Hickman, B.G. and Coen, R.M. (1976), An Annual Growth Model of the US Economy. ( Amsterdam: North-Holland).Google Scholar
  9. Kendrick, J.W. (1983), International Comparisons of Recent Productivity Trends, in: S.H. Schurr, S. Sonenblum and D.O. Wood (eds.), Energy, Productivity, and Economic Growth. (Cambridge, MA: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, and Hain ).Google Scholar
  10. Krelle, W. (1986a), The Bonn-IIASA Research Project on Economic Growth and Structural Change. Distributed at task force meeting, Sofia, June 23–25 (mimeographed).Google Scholar
  11. Krelle, W. (1986b), Growth, Decay, and Structural Change. Paper read at the IIASA Conference on Economic Growth and Structural Change, November 24/25, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Krelle, W. (1987), Long-term Fluctuations of Technical Progress and Growth, Journal of Institutional Economics [Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft, 143, pp. 379–401.Google Scholar
  13. Wachter, M.L. (1976), The Changing Cyclical Responsiveness of Wage Inflation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, pp. 115–159.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bert G. Hickman

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations