Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Einstellungen und Verhalten der deutschen Bevölkerung pp 155–190Cite as

Why Do People Believe in Socialism? Testing Propositions for West and East Germany with the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS)

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

  • 2652 Accesses

Part of the book series: Blickpunkt Gesellschaft ((BLICKG))

Abstract

This paper proposes and tests for the first time a causal model explaining why people believe in socialism. The propositions are tested for East and West Germany with five repeated cross-sectional surveys of the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) between 1991 and 2010. We found that perceived institutional failure and Christian (vs. socialist) socialization diminish the belief in socialism, whereas status deprivation and socialization under communism lead to a strong belief in socialism. We further found a cohort effect: younger cohorts have only weak beliefs in socialism. There was a very weak period effect: belief in socialism decreased, but only very slightly, after unification of East and West Germany over time.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   49.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    On the history of the GDR see, e.g., Grieder (2012). For the development of East Germany after unification see Blum (2013); Smith (1999).

  2. 2.

    See, e.g., Bolzendahl and Myers (2004); Brooks and Bolzendahl (2004); Lee et al. (2007).

  3. 3.

    Note that it is not claimed that mere system performance generates disbelief (as the work on system support seems to suggest—see, e.g., Norris 1999; Conradt 2003; Mishler and Rose 2002; Rose et al. 1998; Weil 1993a). The major proposition here is that expectations are not met and that this leads to a change of beliefs. If bad system performance is accepted, then belief in the institutions will not be affected.

  4. 4.

    For details in English see http://www.gesis.org/en/allbus/allbus-home/.

  5. 5.

    This is taken from the English translation of the German item by the ALLBUS team (see www.gesis.org). The German item reads: “Der Sozialismus ist im Grunde eine gute Idee, die nur schlecht ausgeführt wurde.” Answer categories: 1 Stimme voll zu, 2 Stimme eher zu, 3 Stimme eher nicht zu, 4 Stimme überhaupt nicht zu.

  6. 6.

    The Allbus includes a question asking whether respondents stayed where they were born or whether they moved. We estimated the full model (see below) by including a variable “staying at the birth place” (0/1 for no/yes). The variable had no significant effect (p = 0.36) on the belief in socialism. Thus, being born in West/East Germany actually measures having grown up in the respective parts of Germany.

  7. 7.

    Classic contributions to APC effects are Ryder (1965); Glenn (1977, 2005); Firebaugh (1989, 1997). Excellent short introductions are Alwin (2002); Alwin et al. (1991, pp. 3–29). For useful overviews see, e.g., Glenn (2004); Alwin and McCammon (2004); Alwin and Scott (1996).

  8. 8.

    See for details Firebaugh and Davis (1988); Firebaugh (1997). Let P be the average belief in socialism for a specific cohort j (of n cohorts). For each cell in a row, the mean has to be weighted by the n in the respective cell, divided by the total N. The sum of these products then yields the grand Total average. Based on Firebaugh and Davis (1988, p. 253) the formula is: P = ∑j Pj • fj, where fj = nj/N.

  9. 9.

    The probabilities were estimated with Stata 13. After the ologit command (ordinal logistic regression) the mchange command by Long and Freese (2014) was used. The figures in Table 3 refer to the first line (+1) of the Stata output.

  10. 10.

    So far the theory explaining those attitudes is not very developed. Particularly disappointing is the “theory” in the article by Alesina and Fuchs-Schündeln (2007, p. 1509) that was published in the American Economic Review and, thus, raises high expectations. The authors, both economists, ignore the vast literature in social psychology about attitude formation. Their “theory” shows that economists do not have a theory that explains preferences or attitudes.

Literature

  • Alesina, A., und N. Fuchs-Schündeln. 2007. Good-Bye Lenin (or Not?): The Effect of Communism on People’s Preferences. American Economic Review 97: 1507−1528.

    Google Scholar 

  • Almond, Gabriel A., und S. Verba. 1963. The Civic Culture. Political Attitudes and Democracy in five Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alwin, Duane F. 2002. Age-Period-Cohort Model. Encylopedia of Aging. http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3402200024.html. Zugegriffen am: 1.1.2018.

  • Alwin, Duane F., R. L. Cohen und T. M. Newcomb. 1991. Political Attitudes over the Life Span. The Bennington Women after Fifty Years. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alwin, D. F. und R. J. McCammon. 2004. Generations, Cohorts, and Social Change. In Handbook of the Life Course, Hrsg. J.T. Mortimer und M.S. Shanahan, 23-5. New York: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alwin, D. F., und J. Scott. 1996. Attitude Change: Its Measurement and Interpretation Using Longitudinal Surveys.In Understanding Changes in Social Attitudes, Hrsg. B. Taylor und K. Thomson, 75–106. Brookfield, VT: Dartmouth Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arzheimer, Kai. 2005. “Freiheit oder Sozialismus?” Gesellschaftliche Wertorientierungen, Staatszielvorstellungen und Ideologien im Ost-West-Vergleich. In Wächst zusammen, was zusammen gehört? Stabilität und Wandel politischer Einstellungen im wiedervereinigten Deutschland, Hrsg. O. W. Gabriel, J. Falter, und H. Rattinger, 285–313. Baden Baden: Nomos.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arzheimer, K. und M. Klein. 1997. Die friedliche und die stille Revolution. Die Entwicklung gesellschaftlicher Wertorientierungen in Deutschland seit dem Beitritt der fünf neuen Länder. In Politische Orientierungen und Verhaltensweisen im vereinigten Deutschland, Hrsg. O. W. Gabriel, 37–59. Opladen: Leske + Budrich.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arzheimer, K. und M. Klein. 2000. Gesellschaftspolitische Wertorientierungen und Staatszielvorstellungen im Ost-West-Vergleich. In Wirklich ein Volk? Die politischen Orientierungen von Ost- und Westdeutschen im Vergleich, Hrsg. J. Falter, O. W. Gabriel und H. Rattinger, 363–402. Opladen: Leske & Budrich.

    Google Scholar 

  • Best, H. und C. Wolf. 2012. Modellvergleich und Ergebnisinterpretation in Logit- und Probit-Regressionen. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 64: 377–395.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blum, U. 2013. Eastern Germany’s Economic Development Revisited: Path Dependence and Economic Stagnation before and after Reunification. Post-Communist Economies 25: 37–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bolzendahl, C. und D. J. Myers. 2004. Feminist Attitudes and Support for Gender Equality: Opinion Change in Women and Men, 1974–1998. Social Forces 83: 759–789.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boudon, Raymond. 2001. The Origin of Values. Sociology and Philosophy of Beliefs. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brooks, C. und C. Bolzendahl. 2004. The Transformation of US Gender Role Attitudes: Cohort Replacement, Social-Structural Change, and Ideological Learning. Social Science Research 33: 106–133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Conradt, David P. 2003. Political Culture and Identity: The Post-Unification Search for Inner Unity. In Developments in German Politics 3, Hrsg. S. Padgett, W. E. Paterson und G. Smith, 269–297. Durham: Duke University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dalton, R. J. 1994. Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies. British Journal of Political Science 24: 469–493.

    Google Scholar 

  • Danigelis, N. L., M. Hardy und S. J. Cutler. 2007. Population Aging, Intracohort Aging, and Sociopolitical Attitudes. American Sociological Review 72: 812–830.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fillieule, Oliver. 2013. Political Socialization and Social Movements. In The Wiley-Blackwell Encyclopedia of Social and Political Movements, Volume 3, Hrsg. D. A. Snow, D. della Porta, B. Klandermans und D. McAdam, 968–974. London: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Finkel, S. E., S. Humphries und K.-D. Opp. 2001. Socialist Values and the Development of Democratic Support in the Former East Germany. International Political Science Review 22: 339–361.

    Google Scholar 

  • Firebaugh, G. 1989. Methods for Estimating Cohort Replacement Effects. Sociological Methodology 19: 243–262.

    Google Scholar 

  • Firebaugh, Glenn. 1997. Analyzing Repeated Surveys. Thousand Oaks: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Firebaugh, G. und K. E. Davis. 1988. Trends in Antiblack Prejudice, 1972–1984: Region and Cohort Effects. American Journal of Sociology 94: 251–272.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fishbein, Martin und I. Ajzen. 2010. Predicting and Changing Behavior. The Reasoned Action Approach. New York and Hove: Psychology Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuchs, D., und E. Roller. 2013. Einstellungen zu Demokratie und Sozialstaat. In Datenreport 2013. Ein Sozialbericht für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Hrsg. Statistisches Bundesamt, 370–376. Bonn: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung.

    Google Scholar 

  • GESIS—Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. 2012. Allgemeine Bevölkerungsumfrage der Sozialwissenschaften. ALLBUS-Kumulation 1980–2010. GESIS Datenarchiv, Köln. ZA4574 Datenfile Version 1.0.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Gabriel, Oscar W. 2000. Demokratische einstellungen in einem Land ohne demokratische Traditionen? Die Unterstützung der Demokratie in den neuen Bundesländern. In Wirklich ein Volk? die politischen Orientierungen von Ost- und Westdeutschen im Vergleich, J. Falter, O.W. Gabriel und H. Rattinger, 41–77. Opladen: Leske & Budrich.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glenn, Norval D. 1977. Cohort Analysis. Beverly Hills & London: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glenn, Norval D. 2004. Distinguishing Age, Period, and Cohort Effects. In Handbook of the Life Course, Hrsg. J. T. Mortimer und M. J. Shanahan, 465–476. New York: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glenn, Norval D. 2005. Cohort Analysis. Thousand Oaks: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goeckel, Robert F. 1990. The Lutheran Church and the East German State: Political Conflict and Change Under Ulbricht and Honecker. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grieder, Peter. 2012. The German Democratic Republic. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, K. S., D. F. Alwin und P. A. Tufis. 2007. Beliefs about Women’s Labour in the Reunified Germany, 1991–2004 European Sociological Review 23: 487-503.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim, B.-Y., S. Lee, S. Choi, K. Choi, and J. Lee. 2013. Do Institutions Affect Social Preferences? Evidence from Divided Korea. Discussion Paper No. 7567, IZA (Institnute for the Study of Labor -- IZA). http://ftp.iza.org/dp7567.pdf.

  • Klüsener, S., und J. Goldstein. 2016. A Long-Standing Demographic East–West Divide in Germany. Population, Space and Place 22: 5–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lemke, Christiane. 1991. Die Ursachen des Umbruchs 1989. Politische Sozialisation in der ehemaligen DDR. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Long, J. Scott. 2017. Regression Models for Nominal and Ordinal Outcomes. In The Sage Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference, Hrsg. H. Best und C. Wolf, 173–203. London: Sage Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Long, J. Scott, und J. Freese. 2014. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mishler, W., und R. Rose. 2002. Learning and Re-Learning Regime Support: The Dynamics of Post-Communist Regimes. European Journal of Political Research 41: 5–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mood, C. 2010. Logistic Regression: Why We Cannot Do What We Think We Can Do, and What We Can Do About It. European Sociological Review 26: 67–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neller, Katja. 2006. DDR-Nostalgie. Dimensionen der Orientierungen der Ostdeutschen gegenüber der ehemaligen DDR, ihre Ursachen und politischen Konnotationen. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.

    Google Scholar 

  • Norris, Pippa. 1999. Institutional Explanations for Political Support. In Critical Citizens. Global Support for Democratic Governance, Hrsg. Pippa Norris, 217–235. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nozick, Robert. 1998. Why Do Intellectuals Oppose Capitalism?. http://www.libertarianism.org/publications/essays/why-do-intellectuals-oppose-capitalism, Zugegriffen am: 16.01.18.

  • Pollack, Detlef. 2004. Zwischen Kulturalismus und Konstruktivismus: Die Transformation Ostdeutschlands als Prüfstein der Politische-Kultur-Forschung. In Was sind Kulturwissenschaften? 13 Antworten, Hrsg. H.-D. Kittsteiner, 213–238. München: Fink.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rohrschneider, R. 1996. Cultural Transmission Versus Perceptions of the Economy. The Sources of Political Elites’ Economic Values in Germany. Comparative Political Studies 29: 78-104.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rohrschneider, Robert. 1999. Learning Democracy. Democratic and Economic Values in Unified Germany. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rohrschneider, R., und R. Schmitt-Beck. 2002. Trust in Democratic Institutions in Germany: Theory and Evidence Ten Years After Unification. German Politics 11: 35–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roller, Edeltraut. 2010. Einstellungen zur Demokratie im vereinigten Deutschland. Gibt es Anzeichen für eine abnehmende Differenz? In Leben in Ost- und Westdeutschland: Eine sozialwissenschaftliche Bilanz der deutschen Einheit 1990-2010, Hrsg. P. Krause und I. Ostner, 597–614. Frankfurt und New York: Campus.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rose, Richard, W. Mishler, und C. Haerpfer. 1998. Democracy and Its Alternatives: Understanding Post-Communist Societies. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryder, N. B. 1965. The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change. American Sociological Review 30: 843–861.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, Patricia J. 1999. After the Wall. Eastern Germany Since 1989. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svallfors, S. 2010. Policy Feedback, Generational Replacement, and Atitudes to State Intervention: Eastern and Western Germany, 1990–2006. European Political Science Review 2: 119–135.

    Google Scholar 

  • Visser, P. S., und J. A. Krosnick. 1998. Development of Attitude Strength Over the Life Cycle: Surge and Decline. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 75: 1389–1410.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weil, F. D. 1987. Cohorts, Regimes, and the Legitimation of Democracy: West Germany Since 1945. American Sociological Review 52: 308–324.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weil, F. D. 1993a. The Development of Democratic Attitudes in Eastern and Western Germany in a Comparative Perspective. Research on Democracy and Society 1: 195–225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weil, Frederick D. 1993b. Cohorts and the Transitions to Democracy in Germany After 1945 and 1989. In Solidarity and Generations. Demographic, Economic and Social Change, and Its Consequences, Hrsg. H. A. Becker und P. L. Hermkens, 385-424. Amsterdam: Thesis Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Westle, Bettina. 2004. Kollektive Identifikation und Orientierungen gegenüber Demokratie und Sozialismus. In Sozialer und politischer Wandel in Deutschland: Analysen mit ALLBUS-Daten aus zwei Jahrzehnten, Hrsg. R. Schmitt-Beck, M. Wasmer, und A. Koch, 261–301. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang, Y., und K. C. Land. 2008. Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys. Fixed or Random Effects? Sociological Methods & Research 36: 297–326.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hamburg, Germany

    Karl-Dieter Opp

Authors
  1. Karl-Dieter Opp
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Datenarchiv für Sozialwissenschaften, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, Köln, Germany

    Pascal Siegers

  2. Datenarchiv für Sozialwissenschaften, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, Köln, Germany

    Sonja Schulz

  3. Dauerbeobachtung der Gesellschaft, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, Mannheim, Germany

    Oshrat Hochman

Appendix

Appendix

Attitudes Toward the Welfare State and the Belief in Socialism:

It was assumed that “socialism” means, among other things, a very positive attitude toward the welfare state. This could be tested with the ALLBUS. We would expect, among other things, that the answers to the socialism item correlate with items referring to positive attitudes toward a welfare state. The selected items that have a relatively high correlation with the belief in socialism are contained in Table A.1.

Column 2 shows the bivariate correlations with the socialism item. Their absolute size varies between 0.19 and 0.30. The items do thus not perfectly match the meaning of socialism, but certainly embrace aspects of it. If the items measure belief in the welfare state they should load on the same factor as the socialism item. A factor analysis (Unweighted Least Squares with varimax rotation) with the items listed in Table A.1 (thus, including “belief in socialism“) confirms this. As column 3 indicates, the factor analysis yields one factor with an explained variance of 31.8%. The size of the loadings is similar across items.

Table A.1 Measuring the Belief in the Welfare State (Translated by the author)
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, ein Teil von Springer Nature

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Opp, KD. (2019). Why Do People Believe in Socialism? Testing Propositions for West and East Germany with the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS). In: Siegers, P., Schulz, S., Hochman, O. (eds) Einstellungen und Verhalten der deutschen Bevölkerung. Blickpunkt Gesellschaft. Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-21999-4_6

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-21999-4_6

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer VS, Wiesbaden

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-658-21998-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-658-21999-4

  • eBook Packages: Social Science and Law (German Language)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation