Die Bedeutung dynamisch zeitlicher und räumlicher Effekte bei der internationalen Standortwahl: Eine empirische Untersuchung deutscher Direktinvestitionen

Chapter

Zusammenfassung

Pfadabhängiges Verhalten bei Direktinvestitionsentscheidungen, das in ineffizienten Handeln von einzelnen Unternehmen oder von Unternehmenspopulationen resultieren kann, spielt insbesondere in der empirischen Forschung eine untergeordnete Rolle, obwohl zahlreiche Arbeiten des Internationalen Managements dynamisch zeitliche und räumliche Interaktionseffekte beschreiben, die ein solches Verhalten begründen können. Ziel dieser Studie ist es, empirisch zu untersuchen, welche Relevanz unterschiedliche Interaktionseffekte für die Direktinvestitionsentscheidung haben und inwiefern diese zu einem pfadabhängigen Verhalten führen. Hierzu schätzen wir dynamisch räumliche Paneldaten-Regressionsmodelle für deutsche Direktinvestitionen (1994–2010) und die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das Direktinvestitionsverhalten deutscher Unternehmen einer pfadabhängigen Prozesslogik folgt. So konvergiert der Entwicklungsprozess von Direktinvestitionsbeständen zwar innerhalb eines Gastlandes langfristig gegen ein Gleichgewicht, jedoch divergieren zwischen verschiedenen Ländergruppen die Bestände, da diese aufgrund dynamisch zeitlicher Effekte unterschiedlichen Wachstumspfaden folgen. Weiterhin werden erstmalig explizit interorganisationale Interaktionseffekte nachgewiesen, welche in Ländergruppen mit geringer anfänglicher Direktinvestitionsintensität oder geringem Entwicklungsniveau einen signifikant positiven Einfluss auf deutsche Direktinvestitionen ausüben. Auch zeigt sich, dass Interaktionseffekte zwischen Gastländern bestehen, die zu einem räumlichen pfadabhängigen Expansionsprozess führen können.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Literaturverzeichnis

  1. Aharoni, Yair (1966): The foreign investment decision process. Boston 1966.Google Scholar
  2. Anselin, Luc (1999): Spatial econometrics. Arbeitspapier, Bruton Center, School of Social Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas.Google Scholar
  3. Anselin, Luc/Florax, Raymond J. G. M. (1995): Small sample properties of tests for spatial dependence in regression models. In: Anselin, Luc/Florax, Raymond J. G. M. (Hrsg): New directions in spatial econometrics. Berlin 1995, S. 21–52.Google Scholar
  4. Araujo, Luis/Rezende, Sergio (2003): Path dependence, MNCs and the internationalisation process: A relational approach. In: International Business Review, 12. Jg., Heft 6, S. 719–737.Google Scholar
  5. Arenius, Pia (2005): The psychic distance postulate revised: From market selection to speed of market penetration. In: Journal of International Entrepreneurship, 3. Jg., Heft 2, S. 115–131.Google Scholar
  6. Arregle, Jean-Luc/Beamish, Paul W./Hébert, Louis (2009): The regional dimension of MNEs’ foreign subsidiary localization. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 40. Jg., Heft 1, S. 86–107.Google Scholar
  7. Arthur, W. Brian (1994): Increasing returns and path dependency in the economy. Ann Arbor 1994.Google Scholar
  8. Arthur, W. Brian (1989): Competing technologies: Increasing returns, and lock-in by historical events. In: Economic Journal, 99. Jg., Heft 394, S. 116–131.Google Scholar
  9. Baltagi, Badi H./Egger, Peter/Pfaffermayr, Michael (2007): Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?. In: Journal of Econometrics, 140. Jg., Heft 1, S. 260–281.Google Scholar
  10. Barro, Robert J./Lee, Jong-Wha (online): Educational attainment dataset. http://barrolee.com.
  11. Blonigen, Bruce A./Davies, Ronald B. (2004): The effects of bilateral tax treaties on US FDI activity. In: International Tax and Public Finance, 11. Jg., Heft 5, S. 601–622.Google Scholar
  12. Blonigen, Bruce A./Davies, Ronald B./Waddell, Glen R./Naughton, Helen T. (2007): FDI in space: Spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment. In: European Economic Review, 51. Jg., Heft 5, S. 1303–1325.Google Scholar
  13. Braun, Gerhard (1988): Die Theorie der Direktinvestition. Diss. Universität Tübingen, Köln 1988.Google Scholar
  14. Buckley, Peter J./Casson, Mark (1976): The future of the multinational enterprise. London 1976.Google Scholar
  15. Cantwell, John/Dunning, John H./Lundan, Sarianna M. (2010): An evolutionary approach to understanding international business activity: The co-evolution of MNEs and the institutional environment. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 41. Jg., Heft 4, S. 567–586.Google Scholar
  16. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices (online): Penn World Tables. https://pwt.sas.upenn.edu.
  17. CEPii (online): GeoDist Database. Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales. http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=6.
  18. Chan, Christine M./Makino, Shige/Isobe, Takehiko (2006): Interdependent behavior in foreign direct investment: The multi-level effects of prior entry and prior exit on foreign market entry. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 37. Jg., Heft 5, S. 642–665.Google Scholar
  19. Cheng, Leonard K./Kwan, Yum K. (2000): What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience. In: Journal of International Economics, 51. Jg., Heft 2, S. 379–400.Google Scholar
  20. Coughlin, Cletus C./Segev, Eran (2000): Foreign direct investment in China: A spatial econometric study. In: World Economy, 23. Jg., Heft 1, S. 1–23.Google Scholar
  21. Cowan, Robin/Gunby, Philip (1996): Sprayed to death: Path dependence, lock-in and pest control strategies. In: Economic Journal, 106. Jg., Heft 436, S. 521–542.Google Scholar
  22. David, Paul A. (2000): Path dependence, its critics and the quest for „Historical Economics“. In: Garrouste, Pierre/Ioannides, Stavros: Evolution and path dependence in economic ideas: Past and present, Cheltenham/Northampton 2000, S. 15-37.Google Scholar
  23. David, Paul A. (1985): Clio and the economics of QWERTY. In: American Economic Review, 75. Jg., Heft 2, S. 332–337.Google Scholar
  24. Demekas, Dimitri G./Horváth, Balázs/Ribakova, Elina/Wu, Yi (2007): Foreign direct investment in European transition economies: The role of policies. In: Journal of Comparative Economics, 35. Jg., Heft 2, S. 369–386.Google Scholar
  25. Deutsche Bundesbank (2009/2012): Bestandserhebung über Direktinvestitionen: Statistische Sonderveröffentlichung 10. Frankfurt am Main 2009/2012.Google Scholar
  26. Deutsche Bundesbank (1997/2000/2003/2006): Kapitalverflechtung mit dem Ausland: Statistische Sonderveröffentlichung 10. Frankfurt am Main 1997/2000/2003/2006.Google Scholar
  27. Dunning, John H. (1988): The eclectic paradigm of international production: A restatement and some possible extensions. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 19. Jg., Heft 1, S. 1–31.Google Scholar
  28. Eaton, Jonathan/Tamura, Akiko (1994): Bilateralism and regionalism in Japanese and US trade and direct foreign investment patterns. In: Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 8. Jg., Heft 4, S. 478–510.Google Scholar
  29. Elhorst, J. Paul (2010): Applied spatial econometrics: Raising the bar. In: Spatial Economic Analysis, 5. Jg., Heft 1, S. 9–28.Google Scholar
  30. Eriksson, Kent/Johanson, Jan/Majkgård, Anders/Sharma, Deo D. (1997): Experiential knowledge and cost in the internationalization process. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 28. Jg., Heft 2, S. 337–360.Google Scholar
  31. Garretsen, Harry/Peeters, Jolanda (2009): FDI and the relevance of spatial linkages: Do third-country effects matter for Dutch FDI?. In: Review of World Economics, 145. Jg., Heft 2, S. 319–338.Google Scholar
  32. Görg, Holger (2005): Fancy a stay at the „Hotel California“? The role of easy entry and exit for FDI. In: Kyklos, 58. Jg., Heft 4, S. 519–535.Google Scholar
  33. Granger, Clive W. J./Newbold, Paul (1974): Spurious regressions in econometrics. In: Journal of Econometrics, 2. Jg., Heft 2, S. 111–120.Google Scholar
  34. Håkansson, Håkan/Lundgren, Anders (1997): Paths in time and space: Path dependence in industrial networks. In: Ottosson, Jan/Magnusson, Lars (Hrsg.): Evolutionary economics and path dependence. Cheltenham 1997, S. 119–137.Google Scholar
  35. Helpman, Elhanan (1984): A simple theory of international trade with multinational corporations. In: Journal of Political Economy, 92. Jg., Heft 3, S. 451–471.Google Scholar
  36. Herwartz, Helmut/Siedenburg, Florian (2008): Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. In: Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 53. Jg., Heft 1, S. 137–150.Google Scholar
  37. Henisz, Witold J. (2002): The institutional environment for infrastructure investment. In: Industrial and Corporate Change, 11. Jg., Heft 2, S. 355–389.Google Scholar
  38. Henisz, Witold J./Delios, Andrew (2001): Uncertainty, imitation, and plant location: Japanese multinational corporations, 1990–1996. In: Administrative Science Quarterly, 46. Jg., Heft 3, S. 443–475.Google Scholar
  39. Hofstede, Geert (1980): Culture’s consequences: International differences in workrelated values. 5. Aufl., Beverly Hills 1980.Google Scholar
  40. Horst, Thomas (1972): The industrial composition of U.S. exports and subsidiary sales to the Canadian market. In: American Economic Review, 62. Jg., Heft 1/2, S. 37–45.Google Scholar
  41. Hymer, Stephen H. (1960): The international operation of national firms: A study of direct investment. Diss. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (Massachusetts)/London 1960 (veröffentlicht unter demselben Titel 1976).Google Scholar
  42. International Monetary Fund (online): World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015 Edition, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx.
  43. Johanson, Jan/Mattsson, Lars-Gunnar (1988): Internationalization in industrial systems: A network approach. In: Hood, Neil/Vahlne, Jan-Erik (Hrsg.): Strategies in global competition. New York 1988, S. 287–314.Google Scholar
  44. Johanson, Jan/Vahlne, Jan-Erik (2009): The Uppsala internationalization process model revisited: From liability of foreignness to liability of outsidership. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 40. Jg., Heft 1, S. 1411–1431.Google Scholar
  45. Johanson, Jan/Vahlne, Jan-Erik (1990): The mechanism of internationalization. In: International Marketing Review, 7. Jg., Heft 4, S. 11–24.Google Scholar
  46. Johanson, Jan/Vahlne, Jan-Erik (1977): The internationalization process of the firm: A model of knowledge development and increasing foreign market commitments. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 8. Jg., Heft 1, S. 23–32.Google Scholar
  47. Knoben, Joris/Oerlemans, Leon A. G. (2006): Proximity and inter-organizational collaboration: A literature review. In: International Journal of Management Reviews, 8. Jg., Heft 2, S. 71–89.Google Scholar
  48. Koch, Jochen (2008): Strategic paths and media management: A path dependency analysis of the German newspaper branch of high quality journalism. In: Schmalenbach Business Review, 60. Jg., Heft 1, S. 50–73.Google Scholar
  49. Kogut, Bruce/Singh, Harbir (1988): The effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 19. Jg., Heft 3, S. 411–432.Google Scholar
  50. Krugman, Paul (1991): Increasing returns and economic geography. In: Journal of Political Economy, 99. Jg., Heft 3, S. 483–499.Google Scholar
  51. Maarten de Vet, Jan/Scott, Allen J. (1992): The Southern Californian medical device industry: Innovation, new firm formation, and location. In: Research Policy, 21. Jg., Heft 2, S. 145–161.Google Scholar
  52. Mattsson, Lars-Gunnar (1998): Dynamics of overlapping networks and strategic actions by the international firm. In: Chandler, Alfred/Hagstrom, Peter/Sölvell, Örjan (Hrsg.): The dynamic firm: The role of technology, strategy, organization, and regions. Oxford 1998, S. 242–259.Google Scholar
  53. Markusen, James R. (1984): Multinationals, multi-plant economies, and the gains from trade. In: Journal of International Economics, 16. Jg., Heft 3/4, S. 205–226.Google Scholar
  54. Martin, Xavier/Swaminathan, Anand/Mitchell, Will (1998): Organizational evolution in the interorganizational environment: Incentives and constraints on international expansion strategy. In: Administrative Science Quarterly, 43. Jg., Heft 3, S. 566–601.Google Scholar
  55. Martínez-Martín, Jaime (2011): General equilibrium long-run determinants for Spanish FDI: A spatial panel data approach. In: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2. Jg., Heft 3, S. 305–333.Google Scholar
  56. Nachum, Lilach/Song, Sangyoung (2011): The MNE as a portfolio: Interdependencies in MNE growth trajectory. In: Journal of International Business Studies, 42. Jg., Heft 3, S. 381–405.Google Scholar
  57. Navaretti, Giorgio Barba/Venables, Anthony J. (2004): Multinational firms in the world economy. Princeton (New Jersey) 2004.Google Scholar
  58. OECD (online): Foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics: OECD data, analysis and forecasts. http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx.
  59. Pedersen, Torben/Petersen, Bent (1998): Explaining gradually increasing resource commitment to a foreign market. In: International Business Review, 7. Jg., Heft 5, S. 483–501.Google Scholar
  60. Pierson, Paul (2000): Increasing returns, path dependence, and the study of politics. In: American Political Science Review, 94. Jg., Heft 2, S. 251–267.Google Scholar
  61. Salancik, Gerald R./Pfeffer, Jeffrey (1974): The bases and use of power in organizational decision making: The case of a university. In: Administrative Science Quarterly, 19. Jg., Heft 4, S. 453–473.Google Scholar
  62. Saxenian, AnnaLee (1990): Regional networks and the resurgence of Silicon Valley. In: California Management Review, 33. Jg., Heft 1, S. 89–113.Google Scholar
  63. Schwartz, Shalom H. (2006): A theory of cultural value orientations: Explication and applications. In: Comparative Sociology, 5. Jg., Heft 2/3, S. 137–182.Google Scholar
  64. Schwartz, Shalom H. (2004): Mapping and interpreting cultural differences around the world. In: Vinken, Henk/Soeters, Joseph/Ester, Peter (Hrsg.): Comparing cultures: Dimensions of culture in a comparative perspective. Leiden 2004, S. 85–119.Google Scholar
  65. Siegel, Jordan I./Licht, Amir N./Schwartz, Shalom H. (2012): Egalitarianism, cultural distance, and foreign direct investment: A new approach. In: Organization Science, Articles in Advance, S. 1–21.Google Scholar
  66. Staw, Barry M. (2002): The escalation of commitment: An update and appraisal. In: Shapira, Zur (Hrsg.): Organizational decision making. Cambridge 2002, S. 191–215.Google Scholar
  67. Sydow, Jörg/Schreyögg, Georg/Koch, Jochen (2009): Organizational path dependence: Opening the black box. In: Academy of Management Review, 34. Jg., Heft 4, S. 689–709.Google Scholar
  68. UNCTAD (online): FDI statistics division on investment and enterprise: Interactive database. http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/FDI%20Statistics/Interactive-database.aspx.
  69. Universität Göteborg (Online): Quality of Government Institute. http://qog.pol.gu.se.
  70. Vergne, Jean-Philippe/Durand, Rodolphe (2010): The missing link between the theory and empirics of path dependence: Conceptual clarification, testability issue, and methodological implications. In: Journal of Management Studies, 47. Jg., Heft 4, S. 736–759.Google Scholar
  71. Weltbank (online): World Development Indicators. http://data.worldbank.org/datacatalog/world-development-indicators.
  72. Wolf, Joachim (2009): Die Internationalisierung der Unternehmenstätigkeit aus der Perspektive der Pfadabhängigkeitstheorie. In: Schmid, Stefan (Hrsg.): Management der Internationalisierung. Wiesbaden 2009, S. 25–49.Google Scholar
  73. Yu, Jihai/de Jong, Robert/Lee, Lung-Fei (2008): Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both n and T are large. In: Journal of Econometrics, 146. Jg., Heft 1, S. 118–134.Google Scholar
  74. Zenke, Lena (2014): The best comes last: A paradigm of successful path building. Hamburg/Kiel 2014.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Byosens GmbHHamburgDeutschland
  2. 2.Institut für Innovationsforschung/Lehrstuhl für TechnologiemanagementChristian‐Albrechts‐Universität zu KielKielDeutschland

Personalised recommendations